导　　师： 曾坤生

学科专业： 120202

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 广东外语外贸大学

摘　　要： 中国是制造大国，小微企业又是我国实体经济的重要基础，可以说制造型小微企业在促进社会经济增长、增加就业和保持社会稳定具有不可替代的作用。近年来，受次贷危机和欧债危机的影响，我国制造型小微企业面临着一系列共同的困境，生产订单骤减、原材料涨价、劳动成本提高、人民币持续升值、融资困难以及招工难，使其生存和发展面临巨大的压力。如何有效地识别、分析和防范风险是目前企业界和学术界普遍关注并亟待解决的问题。鉴于此，梳理企业和制造型企业风险管理的研究成果，界定制造型小微企业的定义，并针对其风险的特点，形成风险识别的概念模型。在此基础上，综合运用数理统计方法、结构方程模型及决策树对风险进行识别、分析和防范研究，取得了以下主要研究成果： （1）通过探索性因子分析，识别出影响制造型小微企业的4个因子，共包含19个变量，其中生产运作因素、业主因素和人力因素所包含的14个变量属于企业内部变量，而市场因素所包含的5个变量属于企业外部变量。同时，财务指标所包括的2个变量和产品指标包括的2个变量共同构成评估风险的指标。 （2）通过验证性因子分析，验证量表结构的有效性，原先的概念模型是假设每个因子都独立作用于因变量，根据修改指标修正初始模型，发现有些风险因素之间相互作用，存在路径关系。因此增加五条关系路径：业主因素→人力因素、业主因素→生产运作因素、生产运作因素→市场因素、生产运作因素→人力因素和人力因素→市场因素。 （3）运用决策树方法分析小微企业的关键风险因素，同时也找出五金制造企业的主要影响因素，并解释其实验结果。可以发现，造成小微企业高风险的主要因素有学习能力>回款周期>与客户信息沟通，而影响五金制造企业的主要风险有回款周期>招聘普工的难度>学习能力，因此业主因素和市场因素对制造企业是十分重要。研究结果为风险防范措施提供有效的参考依据。 （4）基于影响小微企业风险的关键因素，即业主因素、市场因素和人力因素，从企业和政府两个层面入手，结合小微企业的情况和当地文化传统，提出风险防范的措施。 以上的研究成果进一步深化和完善了制造型小微企业风险管理的相关理论，并为制造型小微企业迎接挑战、防范风险提供了理论指导和决策依据，最终实现小微企业的持续发展和转型升级。 China is a strong country in manufacturing where small-micro business is theimportant foundation of the real economy. It can be said that small-micromanufacturing businesses play an irreplaceable role in supporting the local and eventhe holistic economic development, increasing employment and maintaining socialharmony and stability. Recently, Subprime mortgage crisis and European debt crisishave brought a series of influences on small-micro manufacturing businesses in China,such as the reducing orders, the increasing price of raw material, the appreciation ofthe RMB, the lack, weak and turnover of current assets, financing difficulties, laborshortage and worker retention, etc. How to effectively identify, evaluate and preventthese risks is a hot issue which is the popular concern of the business circles andacademic fields, and which needs resolved. In views of this, based on the reviewsrelated to enterprise risk management and manufacturing enterprise risk management,and the definition of small-micro manufacturing business, according to the riskcharacteristics of small-micro manufacturing businesses, this paper forms theconceptual framework of risk identification, and then comprehensively uses theknowledge of mathematical statistics, correlation methods of structural equationmodeling and decision tree analysis to identify and analyze the risks, and put forwardrisk preventions. This paper has made the following main results: /(1/) Using Exploratory Factor Analysis, we put forward the potential risk factorsof small-micro manufacturing businesses from four dimensions, including operationfactor, owner factor, human resource factor and marketing factor, and the first threefactors /(14independent variables/) of which belongs to business internal environment,and the last one /(5independent variables/) is the external environment. At the same time,the indicators for assessing risk include the financial factor /(2independent variables/)and the production factor /(2independent variables/). /(2/) We use Structural Equation Modeling to validate the conceptual framework.It concludes that there is mutual influence relationship between risk factors, and somerisk factors based on other risk factors may influence the consequences of risks. Theoriginal conceptual model assumes that every factor effects independently on thedependent variable, but we introduce five relation paths: owner factor→humanresource factor, owner factor→operation factor, operation factor→marketing factor, operation factor→human resource factor, human resource factor→marketing factorinto the revised model. /(3/) We use Decision Tree Analysis to analyze the key risk factor in small-micromanufacturing businesses, and find that the main variables of small-micromanufacturing businesses in high-risk are ability to learn> paymentcycle> communication with customers, but in metal business, the main variables ofthat are payment cycle> difficulty to recruiting labors> ability to learn. It can beseen that owner factor and marketing factor are very important to small-micromanufacturing businesses. These results provide an effective reference to riskprevention. /(4/) Based on the main factors that affect the risk of small-micro manufacturingbusinesses, according to the risk characteristics of small-micro manufacturingbusinesses, measures for risk prevention are put forward from the enterprise level andthe government level. The above-mentioned researches further deepen and improve the related theorieson risk management of small-micro manufacturing businesses, and provide theoreticalguidance and decision-making for small-micro manufacturing businesses whenmeeting challenges and guarding against risks.

关 键 词： 制造 小微企业 风险识别 风险分析 风险防范

分 类 号： [F272.3 F425]

领　　域： [经济管理] [经济管理] [经济管理]