导　　师： 刘巍

学科专业： 0254

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 广东外语外贸大学

摘　　要： 贸易条件理论是国际贸易学的经典理论。经过数代学者的不断发展，已经从最初的价格贸易条件发展出了收入贸易条件和要素贸易条件等指标体系，并且在长期对贸易行为起着指导性作用。但是随着时间的推移和经济社会的不断发展，全球范围内的社会总供求态势已经发生改变——世界经济已经逐渐从供给约束型经济过渡到需求约束型经济。而中国的这一转变——根据刘巍（2011）的研究——发生在1995~1996年。经济理论都有其使用的前提假设，当前提假设改变时，经济理论的适用性就有可能发生改变。通过计量经济史的研究方法，我们可以验证和发展经济理论，使之与时俱进。由于学术水平有限，本文只对贸易条件（以价格贸易条件为例）理论在需求约束型经济（以中国、日本和美国为例）下的适用性进行研究，至于对理论可能需要的完善之处，还要仰赖学界同仁。 本文在前辈学者的研究基础上，综合多篇论著测算的中国1996年以来，日本1998年以来，美国1989年以来的价格贸易条件，将其与对应时段的贸易收支差额进行相关性检验，观察两者是否呈现明显的正相关关系。如果正相关关系明显，则说明在需求约束型经济下，贸易条件理论仍具有良好的适用性；如果正相关关系不明显，甚至出现了负相关关系，则说明在需求约束型经济下，贸易条件理论不具有良好的适用性。如果验证出贸易条件理论在当今需求约束型经济的中国已经不具有良好的适用性，那么我们就不应该再机械的使用贸易条件理论评价贸易绩效和指导贸易政策的制定。 Terms of Trade has been a classic international trade theory.As has beendeveloped by scholars of several generations, this theory has gained a lot moreepitaxial, namely, Income Terms of Trade /(ITT/) and Factorial Terms of Trade /(FTT/),compared with its oriental version, Net Barter Terms of Trade /(NBTT/) and it has beenoffering guide to the evaluation of trade and policy making. With the time heading onand on, and the economy of global society making significant progress, the worldwidesupply-need situation has been changed. Most of the world’s economies havedeveloped from supply-limited economies to need-limited ones. The turning point ofChina, according to Prof. Liu Wei, took place between1995and1996. Everyeconomic theory has its background assumptions. When the assumptions no longerexist, the theory has to be adjusted or it would cause trouble. Via cliometrics methods,we can test them and even improve them to get them up-to-date. Owing to the writer’sown limitation, only the testing part is involved in this thesis.As for the possiblyexisting part of improvement of the theory would have to be left to my people of thesame occupation. To be exact, I have to mention that, this thesis takes net barter termsof trade /(NBTT/) as an example because it is easier and more accurate to estimatecomparing to ITT and FTT, and China mainland, Japan and the U.S.A. as targeteconomies. This thesis is built on the foundation of works of senior scholars. The writersearched numerous papers and articles to get data of NBTT calculated by seniorscholars and trade balance data from the official website of China Statistic Bureau andthat from websites of Japan Ministry of Finance and United States Cencus Bureau andbrought them to the eviews6.0software to reorganize and analyze them to see theircorrelations. The hypothesis is, if the NBTT and the trade balance data had positivecorrelation, the Terms of Trade Theory is practical under need-limited economy; if theresult turned out the other way round or they don’t appear any correlations, the theoryhas to be adjusted. And for the latter one, we may not take the theory as a properstandard to evaluate trade performance or to guide trade policy making.

关 键 词： 贸易条件 需求约束型经济 适用性研究

分 类 号： [F746]

领　　域： [经济管理] [经济管理]