导　　师： 李未无

学科专业： 020206

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 广东外语外贸大学

摘　　要： 关于经济增长的源泉问题长期以来已经得到了经济学界的充分论证，目前，学术界对于经济增长的动力源分析主要基于经典经济学关于要素投入的角度，如资本、技术、劳动力、土地、企业家才能等。 然而众所周知的是，随着新经济地理学的兴起，针对产业集聚与经济增长之间的关系的研究日益得到了学术界的关注。与此同时，作为国民经济的重要组成部门，服务业的发展也日益引起了理论界和政策制定者的高度重视。但遗憾的是，针对服务业产业集聚与经济增长之间的数量关系的研究目前基本处于真空状态。 本文正是基于此背景出发，试图厘清服务业产业集聚与一国或一地区经济增长之间可能的数量关系。 首先，在前人研究成果的基础上，对目前我国服务业研究的现状、经济增长的源泉、服务业产业集聚等已有研究成果做了简单的回顾。并从中找出了前人研究存在的缺陷，继而确定了本文的突破点，即对我国服务业产业集聚与经济增长之间的关系进行量化分析。 其次，针对产业集聚理论进行了相关分析，主要围绕集聚的概念，区域产业集聚的形成原因，集聚指标的测算等方面展开。其中，重点分析了服务业集聚的原因，并针对服务业的特征，使用2003-2010年我国服务业分行业面板数据，利用最新的测量集聚指标的第三代技术—参数估计法，借助Cobb-Douglas生产函数的变试，尝试性的提出了一个新的测算集聚效应的指标-TH值。 再次，就我国服务业集聚与经济增长之间的关系进行了理论分析，重点就服务业集聚与经济增长之间的作用机理进行了阐释。继而，就我国服务业目前存在的区域产业集聚的业态特征与经济增长之间的数量关系进行了实证检验。同时，基于威廉姆森假说，通过构造计量经济模型，首次量化了服务业产业集聚与经济增长之间的数量关系，结果显示其线性关系呈现出显著的非线性特征。 最后，得出了如下研究结论：（1）就目前我国服务业行业集聚程度来看，按照GB//T4754-2002的分类标准，在我国服务业的细分行业中，前八大行业有明显的集聚效应，而相比之下，后六大行业集聚效应较差，个别行业甚至没有集聚效应；（2）我国服务业行业产业集聚与经济增长之间的线性关系呈显著的倒U型结构，这一发现充分论证并有力的支持了威廉姆森假说。并给出了相应的政策建议。 The problem of Economic Growth has been fully proved by the economicscholar, nowadays, the research about what is the force of economic growth mainlybased on the classic economic view, that is factor inputs, for example, capital、workforce、land、entrepreneurial ability、technology, etc. As we all know, with the rise of New Economic Geography, the research ofrelationship between industry agglomeration and economic growth has been valuedby the field of economic research. At the same time, as the important part ofNational Economy,the growth of service industry also attract much attention from thetheoretical cycle and policy maker. But unfortunately, the research of quantitativerelationship between service industry agglomeration and economic growth is in thevacuum state. This article is based on this perspective, trying to clarify the numericalrelationship between services industrial agglomeration and economic growth. First of all, on the basis of predecessors' research results, and did a simple reviewof existing research results about the current research situation of service industry inour country, the source of economic growth, service industries agglomeration, etc.And find the flaws of the previous studies, which in turn determines the breakthroughpoint of this article, namely the quantitative analysis relationship between serviceindustries agglomeration and economic growth in China. Secondly, researched the correlation analysis of industrial agglomeration theory,mainly around the agglomeration concept, the reasons for the formation of regionalindustry agglomeration, the agglomeration index calculation, etc., it especiallyanalyses the reasons of the service, and according to the characteristics of the serviceindustry, using the service industry panel data in China from2003to2010, using thelatest measuring agglomeration index of the third generation technology-parameterestimation method, with the aid of Cobb-Douglas production function test, putsforward a new tentative calculation index–TH, in order to value of the agglomerationeffect. Again, the relationship between the service industry agglomeration andeconomic growth in China has carried on the theoretical analysis, mainly focus on theexplanation mechanism on the service industries agglomeration and economic growth.Then, carried on the empirical test of the existing characteristics in our country service industry agglomeration and economic growth. At the same time, based on"Williamson hypothesis", by constructing econometric models, for the first timeproved the quantitative relationship between industrial agglomeration and economicgrowth, the results show that the linear relationship between present a significantnonlinear characteristics. In the end, the research conclusions are following:/(1/) at present, with the viewof our country service industry cluster, according to the classification standard ofGB//T4754-2002, in the subdivision industry of service industry in our country, thefirst eight industry have obvious accumulation effect, by contrast, the later six majorindustry have weak agglomeration effect, especially,individual industry doesn't evenhave a agglomeration effect;/(2/) in our country, the relationship of service industryagglomeration and economic growth is proved to be a linear relationship andpresented the inverted u-shaped structure, this finding gives a well-reasoned anda strong support of "Williamson hypothesis". And gives the corresponding policyrecommendations.

关 键 词： 服务业 面板数据 集聚效应 经济增长 威廉姆森假说

分 类 号： [F719 F124.1]

领　　域： [经济管理] [经济管理]