导　　师： 郑京淑

学科专业： 020206

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 广东外语外贸大学

摘　　要： 改革开放以来，广东省抓住了国际产业转移的大好机遇，经济迅猛发展，珠三角地区成为全国主要的经济中心。由于多年的快速发展，珠三角地区土地资源、环境承载力及高成本问题与经济发展的矛盾日益突出。加上用工成本上升、“民工荒”问题的出现及人民币持续升值，珠三角企业经营发展更为困难。2008年，受美国次贷危机引发的全球金融海啸影响，珠三角外贸出口明显下滑，加工贸易企业订单减少，越来越多的外贸企业陷入经营困境。为了实现产业转型升级，优化对外贸易结构，促进区域经济协调发展，广东省提出了“双转移”战略，要求产业、劳动力在省内双向转移，实现外贸大省向外贸强省的转变。由于历史的原因、比较优势和路径依赖等多种因素，广东省经济带有鲜明的外向性特征。因此，广东省的任何一个重大的战略决策，都必须考虑对对外贸易发展及外贸竞争力的影响。 本文对“双转移”战略实施后广东产业结构、就业结构的变化进行了分析，建立了产业转移对外贸竞争力的影响机制，并运用灰色关联分析法测算了“双转移”战略对广东外贸竞争力的影响。研究结果表明，实施“双转移”战略是广东区域经济协调发展的必然要求，它不仅带来了广东产业结构的升级和就业结构的优化，还对广东外贸竞争力的提升起到了一定的推动作用，但是这种推动作用还不太明显。一方面因为这次大规模的“双转移”并不完全是市场行为，而是“看得见的手”宏观调控的结果，所以“双转移”过程中必然会出现操之过急、违背市场规律的现象。同时，“双转移”全面实施不久，遭遇全球规模的金融危机，接着爆发欧债危机，世界各国贸易保护主义盛行，严重影响了全球贸易发展，以欧美市场为主要出口目标的广东对外贸易发展遭受重创，同样阻碍了广东外贸竞争力的提升。 未来“双转移”战略的实施应尊重市场规律，搞清楚产业转移真正的内在动力是什么，不能以牺牲产业和外贸竞争力为代价。在推行产业转移时，可以考虑率先在产业区位条件良好、产业基础相对良好的东西两翼建设沿海经济带，再循序向粤北山区推进以便更有效的利用沿海区位优势与海外展开贸易。 Since the reform and opening up, Guangdong’s economic developed fast as it seizedthe opportunity of international industries transfer, and the Pearl River Delta regionbecame the major economic center in China. Due to years of rapid development, theincoordination in land resources, environmental carrying capacity, cost issues andeconomic development have become the prominent problem in the Pearl River Deltaregion, while other area’s developed rather slowly, and caused the regional disparitieswidely. In order to achieve the goals of industry upgrade and regional coordination,the government implemented the “Bi-Transfer” strategy. This paper analyzed the changes of industries structure and employment structure inGuangdong after the 'Bi-Transfer' strategy implementation, and calculated the scoreof trade competitiveness in Guangdong. Then it discussed how the 'Bi-Transfer'strategy impact on Guangdong's trade competitiveness. The results show that the'Bi-Transfer' strategy was the inevitable requirement of region development, whichnot only upgraded the industries structure and employment structure in Guangdong,but also promoted the competitiveness of Guangdong's foreign trade, while not yetapparent. One reason was that the 'Bi-Transfer' rather a result of 'visible hand' ofmacro-control but an entirely market behavior, so it will cause some inevitable haste,even contrary to the laws of market during the implementation. More importantly, thestrategy implement 'untimely', it will soon encountered a global financial crisis anddebt crisis after implementation, trade protectionism Prevailed and seriously affectedthe global trade. Guangdong’s foreign trade suffered heavy losses. 'Bi-Transfer' strategy should respect the laws of market in future and find out the trueinner power for industries transfer, but not to sacrifice the competitiveness of industryand foreign trade at the expense. When implement the industries transfer, it can befirst considered the east and west wings of coastal economic belt where thegeographic conditions and base building are rather good, then gradual to the northernin Guangdong to take efficient advantaged of the coastal zone.

关 键 词： 产业转移 劳动力转移 外贸竞争力 灰色关联分析

分 类 号： [F752.8]

领　　域： [经济管理] [经济管理]