导　　师： 周骏宇

学科专业： 020206

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 广东外语外贸大学

摘　　要： 目前，气候变化问题已成为继经济发展后，全球各国最为关注的焦点问题之一。调整能源结构，改变生产方式和消费方式，减少温室气体排放，已成为全球循环发展中不可动摇的大趋势。在此背景下，有些发达国家凭借其在经济和技术上的垄断优势，开始应用碳标签、碳关税、碳中和、碳标准等低碳壁垒措施来限制其他国家产品出口，维护本国利益。 我国经济处于高速增长阶段，居高的“碳需求”与“碳减排”之间势必存在着矛盾。广东省作为我国对外贸易的大省，对外贸易结构主要以化工、造纸、机械、纺织、电子等行业为主，都属于劳动密集型、能源消耗型、高碳排放的行业，这些行业产业链短，附加值低。大规模的出口贸易一方面成为经济增长的推动力，另一方面也带来了大量的能源消耗和碳排放，这使得广东省碳减排与经济发展的矛盾越来越突出。 本文利用投入产出表对2002～2011年广东省工业品行业的单位产值能耗、出口碳排放量以及不同行业出口贸易国内CO2排放量进行了测算。在开放条件下，通过一般均衡模型，以碳关税为例研究低碳贸易壁垒对广东省经济的影响。 研究表明，2011年广东省出口行业国内碳排放量最高的3个行业是电力和热力行业（523.10万吨）、非金属矿物质制品业（488.99万吨）、造纸及纸制品业（433.32万吨）3个行业；最低的3个行业依次是有色金属矿采选业（0.001万吨）、烟草制品业（0.12万吨）和仪器仪表及文化、办公用机械制造业（0.13万吨）。征收碳关税影响最大的3个行业依次为非金属矿物制品业、造纸及纸制品业及纺织业；纺织服装行业的出口CO2排放量、碳关税引起的额外成本、折算后的关税率均低于纺织业排放水平，征收碳关税后纺织服装行业的出口优势明显高于纺织业；当碳关税税率为12/%时，出口量下降3.89/%，出口贸易总值下降13.53/%，国内对复合产品的消费量下降约1.13/%，家庭总需求下降3.28/%，家庭部门收入下降幅度为3.29/%。 At present, the issue of climate change has become one of the most concernfocuses around the world after economic development. Adjusting the energy structure,production and consumption patterns, reducing greenhouse gas emissions, hasbecome an unshakable main trend in the cycle economic. In this context, Somedeveloped countries, by virtue of its dominance in economic and technological, beganto apply carbon labels, carbon tariffs, carbon neutral, carbon-carbon standards andother carbon barriers to restrict exports of other countries, in order to protect theirnational interests. China’s economy is in a rapid growth period, there is an inevitably contradictionbetween the high “carbon demand” and “carbon emissions”. As a big foreign tradeprovince in china, Guangdong province’s foreign trade structure mainly focuses onchemical industry, paper making, machinery, textiles, electronics and other industries.These industry chain is short, low added value. On one hand, the large-scale exporttrade becomes the driving force of economic growth. On the other hand, it alsobrought a lot of consumption and carbon emissions, which makes contradictionbetween Guangdong Province carbon emissions and economic development more andmore prominent. This paper use input-output model, making an estimate of the GuangdongProvince energy consumption per unit output value of the production industriesandexport of carbon emissions data as well as the CO2emissions of exported tradecountry in different industries from2002to2011. In the open condition, this papertakes carbon tariff for example to study the influence of low-carbon economy inGuangdong economy by general equilibrium model. The results show that in2011the three highest carbon emission industries inGuangdong Province is electricity and heat sector /(5.23million tons/), non-metallicmineral products industry /(4.89million tons/), paper and paper products industry /(4.33million tons/); Threeminimum industry is non-ferrous metal industry, followed byindustry /(10tons/),tobacco products /(1200tons/) and instrumentation and officemachinery manufacturing /(1300tons/). There are three industries that are most affected by the imposed carbon tariffs,which are non-metallic mineral products, paper and paper products and the textileindustry. The additional costs and tariff rate after conversion caused by export CO2emission as well as carbon tariff in textile and garment industry are lower than emission level of textile industry. The textile and garment industry export advantage issignificantly higher than the textile industry after imposed carbon tariffs. Whencarbon tariff rate is12/%, the export volume will decrease3.89percent and the totalvalue of exports will fall13.53percent, domestic consumption of composite productswill decline about1.13percent, down3.28percent of the total household demandand3.29percent of the household sector.

关 键 词： 出口贸易 碳排放量 一般均衡模型 碳关税

分 类 号： [F752.62 X196]

领　　域： [经济管理] [经济管理] [环境科学与工程]