导　　师： 田秋生

学科专业： 020204

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 华南理工大学

摘　　要： 改革开放以来，我国经济总体上保持了高速增长态势，这其中，固定资产投资作为经济增长的主要推动力，发挥了重要作用。但伴随着固定资产投资的快速增长，投资占比不断攀升，逐渐带来了投资效益下滑、通货膨胀高企、经济结构失调等一系列问题。基于这一情况，结合我国发展的阶段性特征和经济增长目标，构建一个适度的固定资产投资率区间，对于政府制定宏观经济调控政策具有重要意义。 本文考虑固定资产投资作用效果的时滞性，首先运用计量学方法定量测算了固定资产投资与其效应两者之间的滞后关系。然后，基于两者滞后关系构建了相关模型测算固定资产投资率的适度区间。论文认为，适度的固定资产投资率应使经济系统保持增长态势的同时将通货膨胀率控制在可承受范围内，且保证一定的投资效益。具体来说，第一，固定资产投资率最低应该保证再生产的顺利进行，即从当年所创造的生产总值中拿出的固定资产投资比例至少能够维持不低于上一年的生产能力，使得整个经济系统呈增长态势；第二，随着固定资产投资率的不断提高，投资效益最终会逐渐降低，当低于某个警戒值时，固定资产投资的低回报率会增加金融系统的风险，因而固定资产投资率不能高于使投资效益低于上述警戒值的水平；第三，固定资产投资的过快增长会推高通货膨胀，因而固定资产投资的增长至少应保证将通货膨胀率控制在经济发展可承受范围内。 通过相关分析，论文得出以下结论：固定资产投资对GDP的影响存在滞后性，滞后期大约为1年，基于此，现阶段我国固定资产投资率的适度区间为27.94/%-45.30/%，固定资产投资增长率不宜超过24.58/%。 相比于其它国家，我国固定资产投资率的适度区间明显偏高，本文对结论做了相应的解释，同时就如何提高固定资产投资效益，最终逐步降低固定资产投资率提出了相关意见和建议。 Since reform and opening-up, China maintained a high-speed growth in the economy as awhole, fixed-asset investment as the main driving force of economic growth, has played animportant role. But along with the rapid growth of the investment in fixed assets, investmentproportion is higher and higher. An increasingly high proportion also brought a series ofproblems such as investment performance declines, inflation, economic structural imbalancesand so on. Based on this situation, combined with China's economic development stagecharacteristics and the target of economic development, construct the moderate rate offixed-asset investment range, for the government in the new period, under a new concept ofdevelopment, develop macroeconomic regulation and control policy is of great significance. This article based on the lag between fixed-asset investment and GDP, apply statisticalmethods of verification and quantitatively measure the lag relationship between the two. Then,based on the lag relationship between them, build a relevant model to calculate appropriaterate of fixed-asset investment range. The main theoretical basis for: reasonable scale offixed-asset investment should be to keep economic growth and at the same time to control theinflation rate affordable, also can guarantee of investment benefit. Specifically includes threeaspects: first, the lowest fixed-asset investment rate should ensure the smooth progress ofreproduction, that is, the proportion of fixed-asset investment from GDP at least canmaintained not below previous year of production capacity, closed system assumes growthmomentum; Second, with the constant improvement of the fixed-asset investment rate,investment efficiency will reduce gradually, when less than a vigilance, a low rate of return offixed-asset investment will increase the risk of the financial system, and fixed-assetinvestment rate should ensure investment efficiency higher than the above vigilance; Third,excessive growth of fixed-asset investment will push up inflation, thus the highest growth rateof investment should control the rate of inflation within the scope of the sustainable economicdevelopment. By the relevant analytical studies, this article drew the following conclusions: theinfluence of the fixed-asset investment to GDP exists time-delay, lag period is about1year;Based on this, the reasonable interval of fixed-asset investment rate in our country at presentstage should be between27.94/%and45.30/%, the growth rate of fixed-asset investment shallnot be higher than24.58/%. Compared to other countries, the concludes of this article is significantly higher, therefore,the article then explains why our country need to maintain a higher scale of fixed-assetinvestment at present stage, and at the same time, on how to improve the efficiency offixed-asset investment and gradually reduce the rate of fixed-asset investment eventually, putforward some opinions and suggestions.

关 键 词： 固定资产投资 投资率 经济增长 通货膨胀

分 类 号： [F124]

领　　域： [经济管理]