导　　师： 陈庆秋

学科专业： 020201

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 华南理工大学

摘　　要： 住宅专项维修资金是房屋的“养老金”。随着商品房市场的规模扩大，各地归集的维修资金数额越来越大，但是使用的比例却没有相应地增加，导致越来越多的维修资金闲置在银行账户。而相关的管理部门又没有采取有效可行投资策略，维修资金不能保值增值，严重地损害了广大业主的切身利益。 首先，本文选取了2003-2013年的银行存款和国债利率的相关数据，从投资工具的层面上对维修资金的管理运营现状进行了分析，认为仅靠银行存款和国债这两种投资渠道根本不能实现资金的保值增值，有必要拓宽投资渠道，实现多元化组合投资。同时以深圳市的维修资金数据为例，细分统计了各组不同楼龄的物业单元维修资金使用情况，以确定不同楼龄阶段的房屋维修资金使用比例，以此作为后文的投资运营的实证分析中的最小流动性资金留存比例的参考标准。其次，通过均值—方差模型对最优资产配置模拟，研究增加了股票和企业债这类资本市场的投资工具时，收益率能获得多大程度的提升，并以模拟的结果来估算可能增加的收益，也就是估算目前投资渠道受到限制的情况下不同楼龄房屋的业主遭受的利益损失大小。最后通过前文的理论分析和实证分析之后，本文认为可以从拓宽投资渠道、完善资本市场建设、实现专业化运营等方面来改进，以实现维修资金的保值增值。 Residential maintenance funds are “pension” for the house. With the expansion of thehousing market, the amount of maintenance funds collected throughout is growing. But thereis no corresponding increase in the proportion of use, which results in a growing number ofmaintenance funds idle in bank accounts. The relevant department has failed to take anyeffective and feasible investment strategy, causing no value maintenance and valueappreciation to the maintenance funds. This can seriously harm the vital interest of the owner. Firstly，this paper selects relevant data about the interest of bank deposits and governmentbonds from the year2003to2013, to analyze the managing and operating status ofmaintenance funds with investment tools. It can be seen that if we only use the maintenancefunds to buy the government bonds or bank deposits, we can’t get any interest. It’s necessaryto broaden the investment channels to achieve a diversified portfolio of investments. Thispaper also uses Shenzhen's maintenance funds data as examples, and analyzes themaintenance funds' usage of various property units in different house-age, so as to finalize thehousing maintenance funds proportion in different age stages. All these analysis are used to bereference standards to minimum liquidity proportion retained which is in empirical analysis ofinvestment operations in the following text. Secondly, this paper simulates optimal assetallocation by the mean-variance model. It also studies the circumstance of increasing capitalmarket's investment tools, such as stocks and corporate bonds, to analyze how much yieldimprovement can be obtained. All simulation results are used to estimate the likely increase inrevenue. These can also be used to estimate the loss of house owners in the present situationof limitation of investment channels. Finally, after a theoretical and empirical analysis of theforegoing, we can draw a conclusion that we should take some improvements for maintenancefunds, such as broaden investment channels, improve the capital market construction, andachieve specialized operations and so on, so as to achieve value maintenance and valueappreciation of the funds.

关 键 词： 住宅专项维修资金 保值增值 均值 方差模型 生命周期

分 类 号： [F299.233.42]

领　　域： [经济管理]