导　　师： 刘刚;袁成

学科专业： 0251

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 广东财经大学

摘　　要： 汇率争端问题是国际金融领域的核心问题之一，尤其是中美汇率争端更是成为了国际关注的焦点问题，中美汇率争端又围绕着中国是否操纵了人民币汇率展开。美国以其对中国巨额贸易逆差为由，指责中国违反国际法框架下国家汇率行为的相关规定，操纵了人民币汇率。中国认为美国的这种行为是美元霸权下美国执行单边主义汇率政策的体现，并积极寻找依据对美国的人民币汇率操纵指控展开抗辩。 本文在回顾国内外关于中美汇率争端相关文献的基础之上，在IMF和WTO相关法框架下对美国指控人民币汇率操纵，压迫人民币升值的行为进行了法理分析，明确了中美关于人民币汇率操纵问题的法律症结。然后，在汇率决定理论的框架下对美国指控人民币汇率操纵，压迫人民币升值的缘由因素进行了新政治经济学的分析，并借助综合多因素汇率决定模型利用协整和OLS检验方法实证分析了不同政治经济因素对汇率变动的影响程度，再从中抽离出美国指控人民币汇率操纵，压迫人民币升值的缘由因素并作重点分析。研究结论表明，美国贸易逆差的扩大确实在一定程度上促进了人民币升值，但贸易差额对汇率变动的影响并不大，美国一直以来以其持续的贸易逆差现实作为人民币汇率指控缘由的这种直观性和重要性就受到了质疑，其行为实际上是放大了贸易差额对汇率变动的影响。此外，利益集团和选举周期等政治因素在汇率变动中发挥着不可忽视的作用，它们也作为美国指控人民币汇率，压迫人民币升值的缘由因素而正当存在。最后，我们对美国指控人民币汇率操纵，压迫人民币升值的行为进行综合评价，并给出了中国应对人民币汇率指控的政策建议。 Currency dispute is one of the core problems in international financial field;especially the currency dispute between China and United States has been the focus ofinternational attention. Currency manipulation has been the focus of the disputebetween the two countries. Because of the huge trade deficits, United States accusesChina of violating relevant provisions of international law about national currencybehavior and manipulating RMB exchange rate. However, China holds that thebehavior of America is reflection of unilateral currency behavior under dollarhegemony and seeks basis to refute the accusation of America. Based on reviewing relevant literature about currency dispute between China andthe United States, we study the currency accusation behavior of America under relatedlaws of IMF and WTO and understand the substance of the problem. Then, under thetheoretical frame of currency determination, we adopt the method of new politicaleconomics to analysis the behavior motivations of America. We also adoptcomprehensive econometric model to inspect the impacts of various economic andpolitical factors to exchange rate movement, and then separate the motivations ofcurrency accusation from the various factors and analysis these motivations. Based onthe empirical analysis, we draws main conclusions that the increasing deficit ofAmerica indeed promote the appreciation of RMB, but it only helps to a certain extent.America always uses the continuous trade deficit as an important excuse to accuseChina of manipulating currency, but the importance degree and intuition of the excusewill be questioned based on the empirical results. Besides, the political factors ofinterest groups and election cycle make a non-ignorable effect on exchange ratemovement and they also are the proper motivations of America accusing China ofcurrency manipulation. At last, we comprehensively evaluate the currency accusationbehavior and provide the relevant policy proposal.

关 键 词： 汇率操纵 法理分析 新政治经济学分析 汇率决定 影响因素

分 类 号： [F832.6 D996.2]

领　　域： [经济管理] [政治法律] [政治法律] [政治法律]