导　　师： 宋建军;蒋序标

学科专业： 0251

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 广东财经大学

摘　　要： 钢铁作为所有工业的基础原料，其重要性有目共睹。而铁矿石作为钢铁工业的基础原料，更是重中之重，很可惜当前我国不止在铁矿石的供给上受制于人，在铁矿石定价权上更是一直受制于人，每年为此多付出几十亿乃至上百亿的外汇。铁矿石作为当今集中度最高的大宗商品市场之一，其价格形成一直受到外界的关注，而未来铁矿石价格期货化、金融化时代的到来，更是世界上几个主要国家乃至交易所争夺的中心。在本文中，首先分析了我国当前在铁矿石进口贸易中所面临的困境，然后运用“中心-外围”理论及Johnson国际投资理论等对该困境进行定性分析，找出可能影响铁矿石定价权的“中国因素”，在第四章中在往年数据基础上建立误差修正模型，量化分析这些因素的影响力，并得出实证结论，最后根据前文的研究从供给、需求及定价机制三方面给出提高我国钢铁产业技术水平，扩大海外矿山投资，建立期货交易机制等政策与建议。本文主要的创新之处首先选题角度的不同，着重研究了“中国因素”对铁矿石定价权方面所起的作用，其次在于使用了前人还不曾使用过的理论进行该问题的研究，并使用误差修正模型这一短期动态模型来进行更为准确的实证分析和预测，而前人所建立的模型多为长期静态模型，在结论分析时难免有所不足。 Steel as the basis for all industrial raw materials, and its importance for all to see.The iron ore as a basic raw material for the steel industry, it is most important, it is apity more than our country controlled by others in the supply of iron ore, iron orepricing is even more has been controlled by others, to pay a few more this year onebillion or even tens of billions in foreign currency. As of today the highestconcentration of iron ore commodity markets, the price formation has been theconcern of the outside world, and the future of the iron ore price futures,financialization era, it is the world's few major national and Exchange compete forthe center. In this paper, first analyzes China's current trade in iron ore imports inthe face of difficulties, and then use the 'center-periphery' theory and the theory ofinternational investment Johnson predicament qualitative analysis to identify thepossible impact of iron ore pricing the right of the ' China factor', in the fourthchapter in the previous years, established on the basis of data error correction model,quantitative analysis of the influence of these factors, and draw positive conclusions,the final text of the previous study from the supply, demand and pricing mechanismsin three areas policies and recommendations are given. The main innovation of thispaper first topic from different perspectives, focusing on the 'China factor' for ironore pricing aspects of the role, and secondly that do not use their predecessors hadused the theory to study the problem, and use the short-term error correction modelmore accurate dynamic model to empirical analysis and prediction, and the modelestablished predecessors, mostly long-term static model, the analysis in theconclusion inevitably inadequate.

关 键 词： 铁矿石 定价权 中心 外围 误差修正模型

领　　域： [经济管理] [经济管理]