导　　师： 潘成夫;郑志瑛

学科专业： 0251

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 广东财经大学

摘　　要： 近年来，钢铁行业的发展遭遇重创，产能过剩问题突出。2013年上半年，钢铁行业表现仍然不尽人意，平均销售利润率仅有0.13％，在工业中垫底。钢铁行业效益不好，直接加大了潜在的银行信贷风险，引起了银行业乃至整个社会的关注。钢铁行业的发展受国家产业政策和经济波动的影响比较大，同时整个行业又面临进口铁矿石成本上涨的压力，利润被相应挤压。下游对钢铁产品的需求萎靡以及钢企持续不断的供应，导致了严重的结构性产能过剩。另外钢企的还款意愿和还款能力对银行信贷风险大小也起着至关重要的作用。而且银行自身也存在很多影响钢铁行业信贷风险的因素，例如信贷风险管理方法落后、银行工作人员操作不当等。 目前国内外学者对钢铁行业的银行信贷风险的研究，主要局限于理论分析，运用风险度量模型进行定量分析的比较少。本文综合选取因子分析法与Logistic模型，对钢铁行业的银行信贷风险进行实证分析，可以得出上市钢铁企业的违约概率。最后本文分别对商业银行和钢铁行业提出了建议措施，例如商业银行进行钢铁行业信贷风险的评估时，可以相结合地运用Logisitc模型定量分析与定性分析，这样可以大大提高信贷风险评估的准确性。 In recent years, the development of steel industry suffered heavy losses, especially theproblem of excess production capacity is still outstanding. First half of2013, the steelindustry performance remained unsatisfactory, the average profit margin is only0.13/%,which is at the bottom of the industry. The poor performance of Steel industry increases thepotential bank credit risk, causing the bank industry and even the whole society's attention.Influence of development of iron and steel industry by the state industrial policy andeconomic fluctuation is large, at the same time, the industry also faces the pressure of therising cost of imported iron ore, and profit is corresponding extrusion. Downstream sluggishdemand for steel products and the continuous supply of steel enterprises lead to seriousstructural overcapacity. In addition,the repayment willingness and ability of steel enterprisesalso plays a vital role in credit risk of bank. In addition, the bank is also exist many factorsaffect the credit risk of iron and steel industry, such as credit risk management practices lagbehind and the bank staff's improper operation. At present, domestic and foreign scholars on the iron and steel industry of bank creditrisk mainly concentrated on the theoretical analysis, while by using risk measure model forquantitative analysis is less.This selection of Logistic model and Factor analysis method arecombined in the article, finally the default probability of listed steel companies can beconcluded, which can verify the past default probability and also predict the defaultprobability of the future. Finally this paper proposes suggestions and measures forcommercial banks and the iron and steel industry, such as the assessment of commercialbank credit risk of iron and steel industry, can be combined with quantitative analysis andqualitative analysis of logisitc model, which can greatly improve the accuracy of riskassessment.

关 键 词： 钢铁行业 产能过剩 信贷风险 模型 因子分析

分 类 号： [F426.31 F832.4]

领　　域： [经济管理] [经济管理]