导　　师： 郝雁

学科专业： 020206

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 广东外语外贸大学

摘　　要： 中国改革开放三十多年来，经济持续快速发展，金融体制改革不断深化，资本项目的管制逐步放开，世界经济一体化程度显著提高，人民币的跨境流动规模不断扩大。中国周边国家和地区的居民正在逐渐接受人民币作为交易货币、储备货币和国际清算手段，特别是在东南亚地区，人民币几乎在一定程度上发挥着国际货币的职能。如今，人民币替代周边国家或地区货币的现象已经越来越广泛，而在香港地区，人民币替代港币的现象尤为明显，并且近些年这一现象有逐步加深的趋势。人民币不断替代周边国家或地区货币的过程，就是人民币不断走向区域化的过程。那么本文对人民币替代港币影响因素进行的研究，就对于人民币的区域化问题具有了一定的借鉴意义。 关于货币替代方面的研究，国外的许多学者大多讨论的是国际化的货币对发展中国家货币的替代以及发达国家之间的货币替代，强调较多的是货币替代对于货币替代国和被替代国经济的不良影响。我国学者关于货币替代的研究也较多地体现在国际化的货币对于人民币的替代，关于人民币对于周边国家或地区货币的替代研究较少。然而，如今的人民币已经在区域范围内具有了一定的竞争力，人民币被外币替代的程度不断减弱，而替代周边国家或地区货币的趋势正在逐步增强。由于人民币境外流通主要集中于香港地区，香港地区的人民币占了整个境外人民币流通的大部分，因而人民币对于港币的替代现象是值得我们研究的。 基于以上问题的分析，本文首先从货币替代理论的视角出发，对影响货币替代的因素进行理论分析，并对相关学者的研究文献进行介绍。然后，分别构建香港地区港币与人民币的需求函数，从而推导出人民币替代港币影响因素的方程模型，并在此基础上进行实证分析。分析结果表明：无论从长期还是短期来看，名义汇率、两地往来的人员规模、两地之间的贸易以及基于人民币的网络外部性都是影响人民币替代港币的重要因素；而实际利率差、内地的经济实力只对人民币替代港币具有长期影响，短期影响不显著。最后，本文为人民币逐步替代周边国家和地区的货币并最终达到区域化提供一些可能的政策建议。 It has been more than30years since China’s reform and opening-up begun.With the sustained rapid development of economic, the deepen reform of financialsystem，gradually liberalize of capital control，a significant increase in the degree ofintegration of the world economy，the RMB cross-border flows have been expanding.The residents of the neighboring countries or regions in China have gradually acceptRMB as a trading currency, reserve currency and international liquidation means,especially in Southeast Asia, RMB has almost played with the functions of theinternational monetary. RMB substituting for currencies of neighboring countries orregions has been more and more widely, while the phenomenon of RMB substitutingfor HK dollar is particularly evident in Hong Kong, and in recent years thisphenomenon has gradually deepened. RMB substitutes for the currencies ofneighboring countries or regions and it naturally moves towards regionalization. Theresearch about impact factor of RMB substituting for HK dollar has certain referentialsignificance for the regionalization of RMB. When it comes to currency substitution, many foreign scholars mostly discussedsubstitution of international currency to the currencies of developing countries and thecurrency substitution between developed countries. And they stressed the negativeimpact more on economy in both developing countries and developed countries.Chinese scholars’ research on currency substitution is also reflected in the substitutionof international currency to RMB.The research on RMB substituting for thecurrencies of neighboring countries or regions is less. Today, the RMB is rathercompetitive within the region. The trend of the foreign currency substituting RMB isgradually diminishing, but the trend of RMB substituting currencies of neighboringcountries or regions is gradually enhanced. The circulating of RMB outside is mainlyconcentrated in the regions of Hong Kong, the RMB in Hong Kong account for themajority of the offshore circulation of RMB. Therefore the phenomenon of RMBsubstituting Hong Kong dollar is worthy to study. Based on the above analysis, the paper first precedes from the perspective of thecurrency substitution theory, and analysis the factors that affect currency substitution,and introduce the research literature of relevant scholars. Hong Kong’s HK dollar andRMB demand function then were constructed, which derived the equation model ofinfluencing factors on RMB substituting for HK dollar, based on the empiricalanalysis. The results show that: the nominal exchange rate, staff size, trade between HK and mainland, and network externalities of RMB are important factors from eitherlong-term or short-term point of view; the real interest rate differential, Mainland'seconomic strength has only long-term effects, the short-term effects are not significant.Finally, I hope this article could provide some possible policy recommendations onRMB gradually replacing the currencies of neighboring countries or regions andultimately achieving regionalization.

关 键 词： 货币替代 人民币 港币 网络外部性

分 类 号： [F832.6]

领　　域： [经济管理]