导　　师： 陈伟光

学科专业： 020105

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 广东外语外贸大学

摘　　要： 2008年全球金融危机暴发，自金融危机以来，世界经济增长率在2009年降到了十年以来的最低点。中国加入WTO之后，贸易规模迅速扩大，在国际市场上的地位日益提升。而与此同时，针对我国的贸易救济措施大量增加，特别是反倾销案件数量的急剧上升。作为出口国，自WTO成立以来，我国已经连续多年成为遭遇反倾销最多的国家之一，除了以美国、欧盟为首的发达国家对中国频繁提起反倾销调查外，发展中国家对中国提出的反倾销案件数也在逐年增加。因此，理清反倾销对我国出口的影响显得尤为重要，我国政府与企业面对反倾销调查时做出的选择也关系到长远利益，故本文从理论和实证两个方面研究反倾销对我国出口的影响，并从政府和企业的角度，立足理论并结合实际地提出相应措施。本文的具体研究分为以下三部分： 第一，利用1995-2011年的数据考察我国主要的出口国家所发起的反倾销调查对我国出口的影响，结果显示反倾销调查对我国出口总额有抑制作用，且随着时间的增加，抑制作用越明显。相对于发展中国家，发达国家有更大的市场份额，激烈的市场竞争以及较高的产业关联度，因此发达国家提出的反倾销调查对我国出口总额的影响更为显著。与此同时，反倾销调查同时也对我国出口结构高度产生影响，其影响效用随着时间的推移，呈现U型曲线，即影响先由小逐渐变大，达到一个峰值之后，又逐渐趋于零。由于发展中国家与我国经济的高度近似性和竞争性，其提出的反倾销调查对出口结构的影响更为明显。 第二，基于囚徒困境重复博弈与触发价格策略模型，本文论证了两国之间反倾销博弈中的福利分配问题以及应采取的策略，结果说明自由贸易和经贸合作能够促进双方的经贸发展，政府应该积极主张贸易自由，抵制贸易保护，减少反倾销措施的滥用，加强经贸合作，促进合作共赢。 第三，我们通过消耗战的博弈模型对企业的应对策略进行了分析，考察了双方在反倾销调查中所付出的成本与最终的收益情况。结果说明反倾销案件所涉及的金额数较大，胜诉所带来的收益越高，因此企业应积极应诉，且避免过长时间案件消耗。 Since the outbreak of the global financial crisis in2008, the world economicgrowth rate in2009dropped to the lowest point in decades. After China joined theWTO, the trade scale has expanded rapidly at a breathtaking rate and has been playinga vital role the international market. Meanwhile, trade remedy measures, cases ofanti-dumping that aim to china have been surging dramatically. Since the WTO hasbeen established, China, as an exporting country, has been suffering anti-dumping innot only United States and EU but also in developing countries. So, it is extremelyimportant to figure out the impact of anti-dumping on China's exports, the responsethat the government and enterprises make to anti-dumping investigation affectslong-term interests, therefore, this article studies the impact of anti-dumping that aimto china on china’s export,then propose some suggestions based on theoretical andempirical researching. Specific research is divided into the following three parts. Part one, by analyzing the data from the year of1995to2011, the results suggestthat the anti-dumping investigation to China's prevents the increase of china’s totalexports and the effect is enlarging with time goes by. Compared to the developingcountries, the developed countries have a larger market share in the internationaltrading markets, in which there is a fierce competition, therefore the impact ofanti-dumping investigation on China's from the developed countries are moresignificant. Meanwhile, the anti-dumping investigation to China's affects china’sexport structure with time progressing, showing a U-shaped curve, which affects theexport structure first by small increases gradually then reached a peak and graduallytends to zero. Because the developing countries have a high similarity to china’seconomy structure and they are china’s competitors, its impact of anti-dumpinginvestigation to china on china’s export structure is more apparent. Part two, based on price strategy model from the Prisoner's Dilemma in gametheory, this thesis argues welfare distribution in the anti-dumping game between thetwo countries and what sorts of measures should be taken. Results show that freetrade promotes the development of bilateral trade, the governments should activelyadvocate freedom of trade and boycott trade protectionism to reduce the abuse ofanti-dumping measures, strengthen economic and trade cooperation to promotewin-win cooperation. Part three, this paper analyzed the costs paid by both sides in the anti-dumping investigation and the final earnings through a war of attrition game model, the resultsindicate that the success involved in the anti-dumping cases brings a higher benefit,accordingly, companies should actively respond to anti-dumping cases and avoidover-long case consumption.

关 键 词： 反倾销 出口 两方博弈 系统 对策

分 类 号： [F752.62 F741.2]

领　　域： [经济管理] [经济管理] [经济管理] [经济管理]