导　　师： 刘巍

学科专业： 020105

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 广东外语外贸大学

摘　　要： 对于美国历次的经济危机，国内外学着都有诸多研究，从各个不同方面说明了危机产生的原因，以及如何去预防。但大多数都是纯理论逻辑上的叙述说明，对于预测经济危机没有实质上的帮助。本文试图通过数据来建立某种数量指标来研究经济危机，让人们可以通过这些指标来相对准确地预测经济危机。 本文选取1919-2008年间对美国经济影响深远的几次经济危机作为案例，通过分析其危机来临前所出现的共同的经济征兆（货币供求，商业银行贷款及利率，和房地产业），设置经济指标，采用数量分析法和比较分析法，找出各次经济危机的相同点和不同点，以及历次危机来临前与经济处于正常时期的经济指标的临界点或临界区间。 本文发现，在经济危机来临之前，货币供给M2会偏高，马歇尔的K值也会偏大，并且高于价格上升的幅度，经济中存在过量的货币供给，从而引发流动性过剩。商业贷款会明显偏高，利率会降低，从而导致投资过热。同时，大宗产品如房地产业也会出现一定程度的投机过热。 Both domestic and foreign scholars have done many researches intoAmerica’s previous economic crises to analysis the causes and precautions invarious aspects. However, mostly are just theoretic explanations and illustrations,and have little practical benefit to predict the economic crisis. This thesis is tryingto create some quantitative index to research the economic crisis, so that peoplecan predict the economic crisis more precisely. This thesis selects several economic crises which have far-reaching impacton America’s economy during1919-2008to find out the differentiae andcommonness of each economic crisis, and the critical point or the critical intervalbetween the normal economic situation and the economic crisis approaching bycreating economic index using quantitative analysis and comparative analysis todemonstrate the same economic symptom of each economic crisis. When economic crisis was approaching, the Money Supply M2was foundapparently higher than normal, so does the Marshall K value which is even higherthen the price rise, which means excessive monetory supply in economy andfinally cause excess liquidity. Furthermore, the low loan interest rate and highcommercial bank loads would lead high demand for investment in real economy.Simultaneously, speculation would run wild in real estate, which would causebubble in stock market.

关 键 词： 平减指数 马歇尔的 值 商业银行贷款 利率 新房开工量 新房销售量

分 类 号： [F171.2]

领　　域： [经济管理]