导　　师： 付秋芳

学科专业： 120202

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 广东外语外贸大学

摘　　要： 自哥本哈根气候大会以来，“低碳”成为全民响应的热词。很多世界一流企业发现，可以在供应链中有效降低成本和减少碳排放并自发性地投入供应链碳足迹控制行动，担负起供应链管理在量化产品碳足迹上的责任，联合组成“供应链领导联盟”，向旗下供应商施压，要求其公布碳排放的资料和“碳足迹”验证。与此同时，消费者对低碳产品的偏好也日益增加。如何通过测量供应链碳足迹和减少与监控碳足迹，提升供应链企业低碳竞争力已成为供应链企业的一大挑战。因此，本文基于多阶碳足迹的供应链决策与监控研究，对于认清供应链多阶碳足迹的本质，探索隐藏在企业碳减排投入成本收益背后的合作减排动机，有效进行多阶碳足迹监测与控制具有十分重要的理论价值和现实意义。主要内容如下： （1）构建了供应链三阶碳足迹结构模型和测算模型 通过对供应链多阶碳足迹内涵的探讨，构建了供应链三阶碳足迹的结构模型和测算模型。在此基础上，调研了珠三角经济区涉及九大制造行业的31家制造企业，分析了其供应链上的多阶碳足迹构成情况。最后，给出了旨在减少制造企业供应链多阶碳足迹的若干措施和建议。 （2）提出了供应链碳减排投入决策的演化博弈模型 针对供应商和制造商作为供应链多阶碳足迹管理的主体，以及供应链碳减排投入的外部正效应问题，建立了供应商与制造商碳减排投入的演化博弈模型，并进行了求解。结果表明：供应商与制造商的碳减排投入策略与双方碳减排投入产出比密切相关，当双方碳减排投入产出比不断变化时，出现多种演化稳定均衡。如果“搭便车”行为从对方碳减排投入中获得的收益很大，则供应商或制造商进行碳减排投入的积极性会大大降低。为此，分析了供应链契约与惩罚机制下和政府采取干预措施下的演化结果。最后，应用调研企业实际运营数据进行了数值模拟，验证了各种因素对演化博弈收敛于不同均衡状态概率的影响，并得出对调研企业及其所在供应链，有效促进碳减排投入的供应链契约下的罚金与政府干预下的碳排放权交易价格。 （3）建立了供应链多阶碳足迹监控体系 首先，运用灰色灾变理论，构建了多阶碳足迹灾变预测模型，实现了灾变预警控制，并以调研实例予以论证。其次，运用过程控制相关理论，建立了供应链多阶碳足迹的过程模型和控制模型，构建了供应链多阶碳足迹监控体系，并应用于企业实际运营中的碳监控活动。 'Low carbon' has become a hot word with universal response ever sinceCopenhagen Climate Conference. Many world-class companies have found out thatboth cost and carbon emission can be reduced from supply chain. They voluntarilycontrolled the carbon footprint in supply chain and took on the responsibility of thesupply chain management of quantifying carbon footprint. They formed 'SupplyChain Leadership Alliance coalition” to put pressure on its suppliers to require themto announce their carbon emissions data and 'carbon footprint' verification. On theother hand, the consumer preference for low-carbon products is increasing. How tomeasure, reduce and monitor the supply chain carbon and promote low-carboncompetitiveness of enterprises in supply chain have been big challenges to them.Therefore, study of multi-stage supply chain decision-making and monitoring is veryuseful to help to clearly recognize the nature of the multi-stage supply chain carbonfootprint, to explore the motives of reducing carbon cooperatively hidden behind theinputs of the cost and benefit and to monitor multi-stage supply chain carbonfootprint.The main contents are as follows: /(1/) Construct third-stage supply chain carbon footprint structure model andcalculation model The paper firstly defines the concept of Multi-stage supply chain carbonfootprint and constructs the structure model and calculation model of Three-stagesupply chain carbon footprint. Then this paper studies the supply chain carbonfootprint of31manufacturing enterprises within nine manufacturing industries in thisin The Pearl River Delta. Finally, this paper presents a number of measures andproposals aiming at lessening the multi-stage carbon footprint of the supply chain. /(2/) Build up investment decision models of supply chain multi-carbon footprintreduction based on the evolutionary game Firstly this paper builds up the evolutionary game model of the supplier and themanufacturer, concerning of the main bodies of supply chain multi-carbon footprintmanagement, the supply and the manufacturer and the positive external effect ofsupply chain carbon reduction investment and then finds the evolutionary stablestrategy/(ESS/). The results show that: the supplier’s and the manufacturer’s carbonemission reduction investment strategies are closely related to their carbon emissionreduction input-output ratio. When they range from different area, there’ll be different ESS. Therefore, the paper also analyzes the evolution results under supply chaincontract with punishment mechanism and the government intervention.Thirdly thepaper makes a confirmation of influence made by different factors to ESS of thissystem with real operating data in survey and calculates effective penalty undersupply chain contract mechanism and carbon emissions trading price to promoteinvestment of carbon reduction of the enterprises of the supply chain in survey。 /(3/) Establish a multi-stage supply chain carbon footprint monitoring systembased on multi-stage carbon footprint Firstly, a multi-stage carbon footprint catastrophe prediction model is establishedbased on the grey calamity theory and is confirmed by real operating data in survey.And then the multi-stage supply chain carbon footprint monitoring system is built upcontaining process model and control model，using of process control theory. Finallythe monitoring system is applied to the carbon monitoring of actual operatingactivities in supply chains.

关 键 词： 供应链 多阶碳足迹 碳减排投入 演化博弈 监控体系

分 类 号： [X322]

领　　域： [环境科学与工程]