导　　师： 李明月

学科专业： 120405

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 华南理工大学

摘　　要： 本文通过对广州市白云区空心村实地调查，采取问卷调查法，典型访谈法等方式进行问卷调查，摸清空心村改造的农民意愿。同时对空心村改造农民意愿的影响因素进行分类，再利用二元logstic回归模型对相关因素进行量化处理，得出选取因素对农民意愿的影响程度和影响方向，最后针对模型运行的结果，提出针对性的符合农民意愿的对策建议。 第一部分绪论。包括研究背景及研究意义、研究目标及研究内容、研究方法及技术路线、及文献综述，指出了现有研究的不足，提出了本文的研究思路。第二部分是空心村改造与农民意愿的关系内涵和理论基础。第三部分是白云区空心村改造农民意愿现状分析。第四部分是空心村改造的农民意愿影响因素数学模型分析。从问卷中选取影响当前农民改造意愿的代表性因素，利用二元Logistic回归分析模型进行处理，对模型结果进行分析。第五部分在研究结论的基础上，提出对空心村改造农民意愿影响较大的因素相关的对策建议。 基于以上研究，文章得出如下结论： （1）当空心村发展至一定阶段，将对农民生活造成显著负面影响，农民迫切要求对空心村进行改造，这是当前建设新农村的重要课题。这也和实地调查的90/%的农民有改造意愿，情况相符，空心村改造得到农民广泛支持。 （2）对农民改造意愿影响因素研究表明，空心村改造认知程度、是否异地改建、是否整村改造、是否成为改造试点村、对政府支持需求、改造后节约土地利用方式对农民改造意愿影响显著。空心村地形、空心村到镇中心距离、农民年人均收入、补偿形式、安置范围、是否住进农民公寓、改造资金筹措方式等对农民改造意愿影响不显著。其中空心村改造认知程度、是否整村改造和是否成为改造试点村对农民改造意愿为正向影响且影响最大。 （3）针对空心村改造中农民意愿影响较大的相关因素提出针对性的对策建议却有必要，这不仅仅能够真实的切合农民意愿，也是为出台政策以更好的保护农民利益做出努力。 Based on the field visits of the hollow villages in Baiyun district of Guangzhou City, thisarticle conducts surveys with questionnaire method and typical interviews, knowing hollowvillage farmers feel about the hollow village renovation. Meantime, I have to classify theinfluencing factors on hollow village farmers ' willingness, then quantify the relevant factorswith binary logstic regression models, draw a conclusion of how the selection factors caninfluence the direction of the peasants ' intention, and finally make targeted recommendationsconfirming to the farmers' willingness according to the results of the last run on the model. Part I, introduction. This part Includes background and significance, the researchobjectives of the study and research content, methods and techniques of research, and possibleinnovations and literature review. The literature review reviews studies abroad and at home,notes the inadequacy of existing research, and presents the research thought of this article.The second part is about relationship connotation and theoretical basis of the hollow villagerenovation and farmer's willingness. The third part is, about the present situation analysis ofpeasants' intention about the hollow village renovation in Baiyun district. This part presentsthe study areas-basic overview of Baiyun district, with a focus on a detailed description andanalysis of the present situation of peasants ' intention. Part IV is a mathematical modelanalysis of farmers ' willingness affecting factors in hollow village. From the related factorsanalysis on affecting farmers ' willingness, we can select some representative factors from thesurvey factors influencing the current representation of farmers ' willingness. Processing byusing binary Logistic regression analysis model, we conclude the significant factors affectingpeasants ' willingness to reform, and the impact of various factors. And with the analysis ofthe reasons, they provide the basis for establishing a reasonable modification of policies. Partfive is the. On the basis of research findings, I make some suggestions of hollow villagefarmers ' willingness to larger factors related to countermeasures. Based on the above study, the article concludes: /(1/) When the hollow villages develop to a certain stage, they would have significantnegative effects on the lives of farmers and farmers urge to reform hollow village. This is theimportant task of building a new countryside. This agrees with the condition that90/%farmerssupport improvement, that is, hollow village renovation receives broad support. /(2/) Analysis of factors affecting peasants ' willingness to reform shows that hollowvillage awareness, non-local alteration, transformation of entire village, demand forgovernment support, and savings after transformation significantly impact on peasants ' willingness to reform. Others factors like land use patterns, distance from village to towncenter, scope of farmers ' annual per capita income, forms of compensation, resettlement, andreconstruction funding modalities into farmers ' apartment do not have significant impact onpeasants ' willingness to reform. Among all the factors, transformation awareness, villagerenovation and retrofit pilot village for peasants ' willingness to reform have positiveinfluence and the greatest impact. /(3/) It's necessary to make pointed suggestions about the greater factors that influencefarmers' wishes of hollow village renovation, and that not only confirm the true willingness offarmers, also can make efforts to introduce policies for better protection for farmers' interests.

关 键 词： 空心村 回归模型 农民意愿 影响因素 广州市白云区

分 类 号： [F301.2]

领　　域： [经济管理]