导　　师： 陈皓勇

学科专业： 080802

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 华南理工大学

摘　　要： 海上风电虽然投资成本大，但比起陆上风电，由于其具有发电量大、靠近负荷中心便于消纳、不占用土地资源等方面的优势，因而越来越受到人们的重视。我国海上风电起步较晚，但发展很快，目前我国有许多海上风电项目正在规划建设之中。包括海上风电在内的新能源电价定价问题成为我国及世界电力经济领域的一个重要研究课题。 与陆上风电的区域标杆电价制度不同，我国对海上风电实行的是一厂一价的上网电价政策，即海上风电企业根据预计的财务收支确定其上网电价，并报由政府部门审批，审批通过后国家强制电网公司以审批确立的价格全额收购该风电场的发电量。因此，如何确立合理的上网电价定价方式是海上风电投资者和政府部门首先需要考虑的问题。 本文结合我国实际，建立了基于经营期电价法的我国海上风电上网电价模型，并将该模型应用于桂山海上风电项目中进行研究，测算出了桂山海上风电项目的上网电价。同时还对影响上网电价的各因素进行了敏感性分析，分析结果显示对海上风电电价影响最大的两个因素是上网电量的多少和初始投资额的高低，并据此提出了降低上网电价的途径。 本文还分析了海上风电对环境的减排效益和对系统备用容量成本的影响等外部效应，并利用本文建立的基于经营期电价法的上网电价定价模型计算出了考虑外部效应后桂山海上风电项目的上网电价。计算结果显示，即便将外部效应考虑在内，在现阶段我国海上风电电价相比火电电价依然不具备竞争优势。但是，随着海上风电场造价和运行维护成本的不断下降、一次能源价格的不断上升以及人们对环保价值的更加重视，海上风电对比火力发电的竞争优势将日渐显现。 Compared to the onshore wind, offshore wind has many advantages such as large powergeneration, closing to the load centers and avoiding occupation of land resources. Thus,offshore wind has been paid more and more attention to in spite of its high cost of investment.Although offshore wind has just come into China for few years, it has witnessed a rapiddevelopment. Now in China, a lot of offshore wind projects are under planning andconstruction. Therefore new energy power pricing has become an important research subjectin electric power economic field. Different with the benchmark price for onshore wind, each offshore wind farm has itsown on-grid price. And the price is given in this way: the offshore wind investors determinetheir on-grid price by forecasting financial revenues and expenditures in the future, anddeclare for examination and approval of the government. If the price is approved by thegovernment, the grid company is forced to buy all the power generated by the offshore windat the on-grid price determined before. So the most important thing is to give a reasonableway to determine the on-grid price. This paper proposes a model to determine the on-grid price. This model is based on theidea of operation period price. And we used this model to determine the on-grid price ofGuiShan offshore wind power. Also, we made the sensitivity analysis of uncertainty factorsthat could influence the on-grid price. The results show that energy consumption and the costof investment are the two most important factors that influence the on-grid price. Accordingto the result, this paper proposed the ways to reduce the on-gird price. In addition, this paper studied the external effect of the offshore wind. And used themodel proposed in the paper to determine the on-grid price of GuiShan offshore wind aftertaking into account the external effect. The result shows that even taking into account theexternal effect, the on-grid price of offshore wind is not competitive with the thermal power.But with the declining of

关 键 词： 海上风电 经营期电价 现金流量 净现值 外部性

领　　域： [经济管理]