导　　师： 孙艳

学科专业： 020205

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 华南理工大学

摘　　要： 广东省作为我国改革开放以来经济成长最为迅速、发展成果最为显著的地区之一，在各方面有着其独特的发展经验。在改革开放三十年之际，广东省又率先提出了“构建现代产业体系，加快发展方式转变，把解决当前问题与谋划长远发展结合起来，促进经济平稳、较快发展”的战略规划。一方面要转变发展方式，另一方面要保持经济平稳。由此可见，在调结构、促发展的同时，如何防止经济的过大波动已经是广东省新一轮经济发展中的重要议题。 关于我国产业结构变动对宏观经济波动的影响作用，当前学术界存在不小的争议。其中，争论的焦点便是改革开放以来我国产业结构变动究竟对经济波动起到了促进作用还是抑制作用，以及关于这种影响作用的形成机制。基于此，本文将以广东省为研究对象，探讨其产业结构的变动对宏观经济波动产生的影响，以及这种影响作用的内在机制。以期为广东省进一步的经济改革提供有益的借鉴。 首先，本文对广东省改革开放以来的产业结构变动过程及其特点、宏观经济的波动情况进行回顾与总结，定性地探讨两者之间可能存在的逻辑关系。 接着，通过构建两个关于产业结构变动对经济波动影响的计量经济模型，从不同的角度研究其内在规律。一方面，将产业结构的变动作为一个整体变量，将其同资本冲击、劳动力供给冲击一起，纳入到一个简单的计量模型，分析考察期内广东省产业结构的变动对宏观经济波动的影响；另一方面，从三大产业的角度出发，利用状态空间模型探讨三次产业波动对广东省经济波动的具体影响，据此分析广东省产业结构变动影响经济波动的内在机制。 最后，基于全文研究，给出相应产业结构调整优化的对策建议。并总结全文，找到研究的薄弱环节以及可以改进之处，以期为该领域进一步的研究提供参考。 通过本文研究论证，得到了以下四条主要结论：一是考察期内广东省产业结构的变动是一个产业结构升级的过程；二是广东省产业结构的变动给经济波动带来了抚平效应；三是抚平效应并非源自某些产业具有与经济波动周期相逆的波动特征，而是由于各产业本身波动特征的差异所造成；四是抚平效应内在机制的基础——三次产业波动特征的差异性，来源于各产业自身内部行业之间有着不同的波动协同特性。 As one of the areas with the rapidest growth in economy and most notable progress inachievement since China’s reform and opening up, Guangdong province has a uniquedevelopment experience in various aspects. In the30years of reform and opening up,Guangdong province takes the lead in putting forward strategic planning, the establishment ofa modern industrial system, acceleration of the development pattern transformation, andcombination of the current problems settlement in long-term development, so as to promote asteady and rapid growth in economy work. On the one hand, we need to change the pattern ofdevelopment, on the other hand to keep the economy stable. Thus it can be seen, at the time ofadjusting structure and promoting development, how to prevent the economy from excessivefluctuations is an important issue in a new round of economic development in Guangdongprovince. Currently there is a big controversy about the effects of industrial structure change oneconomic fluctuations of our country in the academic field. The focus of the debate is theeffect should be promoting effect or inhibition, and the formation mechanism of this effect.Based on above content, this article will take Guangdong province as the research object,discuss the effects of industrial structure change on economic fluctuations, as well as theinternal mechanism of this effect. Expect to provide some useful reference for the furthereconomic reform. First of all, we will make a review about the process and characteristics of industrialstructure and economic fluctuations in Guangdong province since the reform and opening up,and qualitatively discussed possible logical relationship between them. Then, study the inherent law from different angles by building two econometric modelsabout the effects of industrial structure change on economic fluctuations. On the one hand,regard the change of industrial structure as an overall variable, put it into a simpleeconometric model with other variables, analysis the effects of industrial structure change oneconomic fluctuations. On the other hand, analysis the internal mechanism of this effect bystate space model from the perspective of three major industries. The last, put forward the corresponding suggestions on adjusting and optimizing industrial structure based on the full study. By summarizing the full text, find out theweakness and the part can be improved, and expect to provide reference for further researchin this field. Through research, this paper has got the following four main conclusions: Firstly, thechanging of industrial structure was an upgrade process during the inspection period inGuangdong province. Secondly, the changing of industrial structure brought stabilizing effecton economic fluctuations in Guangdong province. Thirdly, the stabilizing effect came fromthe different fluctuation characteristics of each industry, rather than because of someindustries have the contrary fluctuation characteristics to economic cycle fluctuation. Lastpoint, the basis of internal mechanism to the stabilizing effect, different fluctuationcharacteristics of each industry, came from the incongruity characteristics of fluctuation ininternal industries of each major industry.

关 键 词： 产业结构变动 经济波动 产业结构升级 状态空间模型

分 类 号： [F127 F279.2]

领　　域： [经济管理] [经济管理] [经济管理]