导　　师： 朱锋峰

学科专业： 070103

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 华南理工大学

摘　　要： 交通运输是经济发展的重要基础，而经济的发展也是交通运输发展的动力和支持。当两者相互促进，协调发展时，才能促进社会的发展。 本文选择了山东省、湖南省和甘肃省作为研究对象，研究交通运输与经济发展的关系，并从两个方面对交通运输与经济发展关系在三个省进行了对比分析，得到了有意义的结论。 首先，本文运用协整理论与Granger因果检验及Chow断点检验对山东省、湖南省和甘肃省交通基础设施规模与经济增长的关系进行了分析，结果表明交通基础设施规模与经济增长存在长期的均衡关系，并且大部分情况存在双向因果关系，并依据协整方程和Granger因果关系将交通基础设施规模与经济增长的关系划分为三个阶段，山东省处在第三阶段，湖南省处于第二阶段，甘肃省仍处于第一阶段。并运用Kolmogorov-Smirnov双样本检验对以上阶段划分及三省各时段所处的阶段的合理性进行了验证。 然后本文选取2001~2011年的数据，运用了数据包络分析对山东省、湖南省和甘肃省交通运输系统与经济系统之间的关系进行分析，发现就交通运输对经济发展的适应性而言，山东省最好，湖南省次之，甘肃省最差，就经济对交通运输的支持力度而言，甘肃省最大，湖南省次之，山东省最小。 最后，结合对三个省的研究结论，对各省的交通运输与经济发展关系提出对策建议。 Transport infrastructure is important to economic development and economicdevelopmen is the impulse and support to the development of transportation.It will promotethe development of region when the two develop coordinately. This paper chooses Shandong province,Hunan province and Gansu province as theresearch object to study the relationship between transportation and economic development,compares and analyzes the relationship between transportation and economic development inthe three provinces from two aspects,and get some meaningful results. First of all,based on co-integration analysis、Granger causality test and Chow breakpointstest,this paper analyzes the relationship between transportation and economic development byusing data of Shandong、Hunan and Gansu,and finds that there exists long-term and stablerelationship between the scale of transport infrastructure and economic growth,there existtwo-way causal relationship between the scale of transport infrastructure and economicgrowth in most cases. Based on co-integration equation and Granger causal relationship, thispaper divides the relationship between the scale of transport infrastructure and economicgrowth into three stages and finds that right now, Shandong is in the third stage, Hunan is inthe second stage and Gansu is in the first stage.This paper proves the rationality of dividingthe relationship and the stage of three provinces using K-S two-sample test. Secondly,based on data envelopment analysis,this paper analyzes the relationshipbetween the transportation system and economy system by using data of Shandong,Hunanand Gansu from2001to2011, and finds out that in terms of the adaptability to economicdevelopment of transportation,Shandong is the best,Hunan is the second,and Gansu is thethird.In terms of the support of economy to transportation,Gansu is the strongest,Hunan is thesecond and Shandong is the third. Finally, based on the research results to the three provinces, this paper puts forward somesuggestions on transportation and economic development of every province.

关 键 词： 交通运输与经济发展 时间序列模型 断点检验 双样本检验

分 类 号： [F224 F127 F512.7]

领　　域： [经济管理] [经济管理] [经济管理]