导　　师： 万良勇

学科专业： 1251

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 华南理工大学

摘　　要： 随着改革开放以来中国经济的崛起、加入WTO后金融逐步国际化，国内资本市场不断发展和完善，投资者越来越认同价值投资的理念，上市公司内在价值日益成为投资者关注的焦点。在全球会计诚信危机的环境下，企业财务信息失真问题日益突出，人们已不能单纯依靠传统的财务会计报表和会计利润来评价一个公司价值并据此作出投资决策。因此，如何衡量企业价值并实现价值增值成为更加迫切的问题，如何选择合理的评估模型对上市公司进行科学评估以确定其内在价值显得尤为重要。 有鉴于传统的会计利润指标不能很好地反映企业为股东创造价值的情况，而且其评价指标诸如投资收益率、净资产收益率等本身存在缺陷，本文选择能够更加全面、真实地反映企业内在价值的EVA/(经济增加值）模型对目标公司作实证研究。本文以徐工集团工程机械股份有限公司为研究对象，以对徐工集团工程机械股份有限公司的基本分析为出发点，重视企业的经济利润，以价值投资为指导思想，采用规范研究和实证分析相结合的方法，以量化的表现形式对徐工机械进行了实证分析和预测。通过对徐工机械2007年至2011年历史财务报表的调整和对未来经济利润的预测，资本成本的确定等定量、定性分析相结合，进行科学评估，最终确定了徐工机械的价值。 本文对徐工机械进行价值评估的整个分析过程可以作为应用经济增加值估值法对企业进行价值评估的一个参考案例。其估价过程于同类中国企业对自身价值进行客观评估有一定的理论指导意义，同时对投资者进行投资决策具有一定的借鉴意义。 With the rapid development of China’s economy from reform and opening up policycarried out on, especially with banking internationalization after China contracted in WTO in2001, domestic capital market is progressively improved, more and more investors acceptedintrinsic value investment idea and are paying closing attention to listed company’s intrinsicvalue. Due to the globally spreading crisis of honesty and credit，the financial informationdistortion is becoming a prominent problem, therefore people can no longer evaluate acompany’s value by depending on traditional finance statement and accounting profit only.Such being the case, how to evaluate a company’s value and make value-added is becomingan impending focus and how to select a right model to appropriately evaluate a listedcompany’s intrinsic value is becoming significantly important. Because the traditional accounting profit index may result in financial informationdistortion and cannot correctly reflect company’s value-adding status, furthermore, someindexes such as ROI and ROE have limitations themselves, this dissertation select EconomicValue-Added model /(EVA model/), which can all-round reflect a company’s intrinsic valuejustly, to evaluate XCMG’s value. Starting from basic analysis of XCMG, this dissertation,attaching great importance to an enterprise’s economic profit instead of accounting profit,taking value investment as guiding principles, analyzes and forecast XCMG’s intrinsic valuevia both normative research and empirical study. By adjusting XCMG’s finance statement ofyear2003to2011’s, forecasting coming economic profit, calculating capital cost and so on,the dissertation makes a scientific evaluation and confirms the company’s value finally. The whole analysis and evaluation of this dissertation can be used as reference caseapplying EVA model to evaluate a list company. The evaluating process has some guidancefor the same trade company to evaluate its value itself, as well as some reference for investorswhen they are making investment decision.

关 键 词： 徐工机械 工程机械 价值评估 经济增加值 模型

分 类 号： [F275 F426.4]

领　　域： [经济管理] [经济管理] [经济管理]