导　　师： 盛均全

学科专业： 120202

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 中南林业科技大学

摘　　要： 自1958年Modigliani和Miller提出MM定理以来,便掀起了对资本结构理论研究的热潮,对资本结构的研究具有重大的理论价值和现实意义。资本结构对企业的资本成本、投融资决策等都有影响,如果能够明确影响企业资本结构的因素,就可以针对这些影响因素,提出优化企业资本结构的可行性措施,企业实现价值最大化。 房地产行业对国民经济的发展起着举足轻重的作用,由于房地产业属于资金密集型产业,所以公司自身情况、国家宏观经济政策、资本市场环境都会影响其资本结构,因此对我国房地产上市公司的资本结构影响因素进行研究有重大的意义,并为我国房地产上市公司优化其资本结构提供参考。 文章首先介绍了资本结构的基础理论,为后面的特点、现状和实证分析提供了理论基础。然后介绍了房地产上市公司的行业特征、经营现状和资本结构现状,总体上看,我国房地产上市公司的负债融资较高,是所有行业中最高的;资金来源以银行贷款为主,融资渠道和方式比较单一；受宏观政策影响大。其次,对房地产上市公司影响因素进行实证分析并建立模型。用资产负债率衡量其资本结构,选取7个微观因素/(包括盈利能力、企业规模、成长性、营运能力、偿债能力、股权结构和抵押价值/)和4个宏观因素/(包括通货膨胀率、财政支出增长率、实际贷款利率和GDP增长率/)为自变量。选用上海、深圳交易所2009-2011年137家房地产上市公司的财务数据和2002-2011年10年的宏观数据。分别对7个微观因素、4个宏观因素指标进行多元线性回归分析。实证结果表明：微观方而：盈利能力、公司规模、成长性、抵押价值与资本结构正相关；营运能力和偿债能力与资本结构负相关;股权结构与我国房地产上市公司资本结构不存在显著的相关关系。宏观方面分析结果：通货膨胀率与资本结构呈负相关关系；GDP增长率、财政支出增长率和实际贷款利率与资本结构呈显著正相关。采用最新数据分别对所建立的模型进行验证,验证结果表明所建立模型合理、有实际意义。最后,通过分析得出当我国房地产上市公司的资产负债率在0.60-0.65之间时,为企业的最优资本结构。 根据对房地产上市公司资本结构的现状分析和影响因素的实证分析,从以下几个方面提出优化资本结构的建议：实现融资渠道多元化、提高企业偿债能力、营运能力、完善公司治理结构；建立健全资本市场机制、完善金融市场等建议。 Capital structure theory has been comprehensively discussed and studied once it is raised by Modigliani and Miller in1958. And it is not only great theoretical value but also practical significance. The capital structure effects such as the capital cost, financing decision of enterprises directly or indirectly. If we know the influent factors clearly, we can put forward to feasible measures to optimize the capital structure and help the enterprises to achieve maximum value. The real estate company plays an important role in the whole national economy.At the same time, the realty business is a capital-intensive industry, whether the macro economic policy, capital market, or the companies own characteristics can affect the capital structure. So studying the influence factors of the capital structure to the reality business has great significance, and it also benefit the enterprises in the reality business to optimize their capital structure. First of all, this thesis gives a brief introduction on Capital Structure Theory, providing a rationale for the follow through study. The introduction contains the present status, current operation and the main features of the real estate company among the country. Asset-liability ratio is higher than the average level of other industries, funding is given priority to domestic loans and financing channels and means is single, system is over conservation and easily affected by the Macro-strategy. Then follows example-analysis of the element mentioned before. The article is based on the137Real Estate companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchange centers. Seven Micro-elements /(profitability,enterprise scalc,growth,current ratio,ownership structure,mortgage value/) are collected from2009-2011year financial data and Four Macro-elements/(rate of inflation,the growth of government spending,interest rate,the GDP growth rate/) are collected from2002-2011Macro economy data. After deep research on seven fundamental elements and four Macro-foundational data, a conclusion could be drawn as follow, in the microscopic perspective, solvency and operating capacity with capital structure are negatively related; scale, collateral value, mortgage value and growth ability are positively related; ownership structure with capital structure is irrelevant. In the macroscopic perspective, the inflation with capital structure is negatively related; loan rate, the growth rate of government spending and GDP's growth with capital structure and positively related. Using the latest data to validate the established model, the validation results show that the established model is reasonable and significant. The analysis conclusion is when the asset-liability ratio of listed companies of real estate in our country between0.60-0.65, the capital structure is optimal. According to the present status of the capital structure of the real estate company and the empirical results show, puts forward some suggestions for optimizing the capital structure of the real estate company:company should widen financing system,improve debt paying ability and operation capacity,complete rational allocation of assets structure, meanwhile should also pay attention to the company scale, perfect governance structure of the corporate; company should establish and perfect the capital market mechanism, improve the financial market.

关 键 词： 房地产上市公司 资本结构 实证研究

分 类 号： [F275 F299.233.4]

领　　域： [经济管理] [经济管理] [经济管理]