导　　师： 田昆儒

学科专业： 120201

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 天津财经大学

摘　　要： 在经济迅猛发展的今天,并购已经成为企业扩张发展的主要途径,并且受到越来越多的企业的推崇,但是很多企业并购往往忽视了其中存在的高风险。作为现代企业突出代表的上市公司,并购规模和数额之大,并购之复杂性,使得其居高不下的并购投资风险更是成为一个不容忽视的严峻问题。很多上市公司盲目进行并购,不遵守市场经济规律操作,再加上外部政策变化和并购整合的各种风险的存在,于是,在研究并购成功率时,便得出了令人不安的结论：企业并购中有60/%以上是以失败而告终的,企业通过并购活动实现价值增值和协同效应成功率相对较低。 很多并购理论都是假定在承担一定风险条件下企业如何实现价值最大化问题,而事实上,如何在企业价值最大化前提下对风险进行控制尤为必要。上市公司并购投资成功与否,不仅关系到公司发展,更会影响到股份投资者；因此,对上市公司并购投资风险进行分析具有极其重要的意义。 文章在并购理论和并购投资风险控制理论的基础上,结合国内外研究现状,对上市公司并购投资风险进行分析。首先分析了我国上市公司并购的现状和特点；在风险识别阶段,采用风险分解法对上市公司并购投资风险的种类进行定性分析,从不同的阶段对影响并购投资风险的因素进行识别,并且分析了并购风险的表现和原因；在风险分析阶段,对并购投资前期、中期、后期各个阶段的风险分别进行具体分析,将层次分析法和模糊评价法相结合来对并购投资风险进行模糊综合评价,进而得出并购项目总的风险水平,并以案例进行详细解释及阐述；最后,在此基础上提出了一些应对并购投资风险的防范建议。文章为上市公司并购投资风险的控制提供了具有较强的可操作性和量化性的方法,具有一定的参考价值。 With rapid economic development, mergers and acquisitions have become the main manner for developing enterprise expansion, and an increasing number of enterprises are willing to choose this way. However, many corporate mergers and acquisitions have tended to ignore the existence of high risk. As a prominent representative of modern enterprises, listed companies have larger scale and amount. It has become more and more complex. So, higher investment risk of mergers and acquisitions has been becoming a serious problem not to be ignored for the list companies. Many listed companies carried out the acquisitions blindly, which did not comply with the rules of the market operation, coupled with the external policy changes and the existence of various risks for the acquisitions and integration. So, look at the success rate of mergers and acquisitions, we came to a disturbing conclusion:over60/%in the merger ended up in failure, the success rate of enterprise value and synergies through the merger and acquisition activity was relatively low. Many merger and acquisition theory concerned how to make the value maximization under the condition of certain risks. As a matter of fact, it is necessary how to control the risks on condition that enterprise value maximizes. Merger and acquisition success of listed company, is not only related to the company's development, but also affect the equity investors. Therefore, mergers and acquisitions risk analysis of listed companies is of extremely important significance. Based on the theory of merger and acquisition, theory of merger and acquisition risk control, domestic and international research, the article conducted mergers and acquisitions risk analysis. Firstly, analyze the situation and characteristics of Chinese listed company mergers and acquisitions. During the risk identification stage, adopted risk decomposition method to make the qualitative analysis for the types of merger and acquisition investment risks, to identify the factors from different stages of merger and acquisition investment risk, at the same time, analyzed the performance and reason of merger and acquisition risk. At the stage of risk analysis, conducted the early, middle, late specific analysis of the mergers and acquisitions investment risks. Combined the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy evaluation to evaluate the risks of merger and acquisition investment, and then came to the overall level risk of the merger and acquisition project with the explained case. Finally, on this basis, make recommendations for prevention of the risks of mergers and acquisitions investment. The article provided a strong operational and quantitative method for the listed companies, and will has some reference value.

关 键 词： 并购风险 层次分析法 模糊评价 风险控制

分 类 号： [F271 F270.7]

领　　域： [经济管理] [经济管理] [经济管理] [经济管理]