导　　师： 张丹松

学科专业： 1201

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 五邑大学

摘　　要： 出口贸易是影响我国经济发展的重要部分,广东省作为我国的出口大省,近年来其出口贸易有着突飞猛进的发展.汇率作为影响出口贸易的重要因素,一直以来都是人们关注的重点,而汇率与出口贸易的关系并未得到统一的结论。对人民币面临持续升值的压力的今天,为保证广东省出口贸易持续稳定的发展,厘清出口与汇率之间的关系至关重要。 本文首先回顾了汇率与贸易收支的一般理论,引用了广东省季度出口数据和珠三角九市的年度出阔数据对人民币汇率变动对广东省及珠三角地区出口贸易的影响进行实证分析。本文需要研究的问题主要有两个：第一,人民币汇率变动对广东省出口贸易是否有显著影响；第二,出口受汇率变动的影响,是否会因为出口结构的差异而存在显著差异。在汇率对东省出口影响的实证研究中,采用动态计量经济学模型中的面板向量自回归模型/(针对平稳面板数据/)来进行研究,并采用Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数、方差分解等方法验证汇率与出口变量的关系,通过实证检验结论表明：汇率的变动能够在一定程度上解释出口的变动,汇率对广东省出口贸易的影响符合J曲线效应；在对出口结构差异性对出口与汇率关系影响的研究中,引入出口与出口结构交互项的随机效应模型进行实证分析,结果表明：各城市出口结构的不同会对出口与汇率之间的关系产生显著影响,加工贸易占比越大的地区,出口受同等幅度汇率变化的影响越大。最后,依据本文的实证分析结果,结合珠三角地区的实际发展情况,对珠三角地区的出口贸易发展从政府层面及企业层面给出相应的建议。 本文的特色之处主要有三点：/(1/)研究视角和以往的研究较不同,本文区分人民币对不同出口目的国/(地/)汇率数据,考虑出口结构因素,分析出口结不同的城市,出口对于汇率变动的反应有何不同。/(2/)使用市级层面的面板数据研究区域因素对出口与汇率关系的影响：/(3/)引入更具解释力的面板数据模型,模型的解释力较以往的时间序列模型更强。 Export trade is an influential important part of China's economics.as a big export province in our country, Guangdong province's export trade develop rapidly in recent years. Exchange rate becomes the focus as an important factor of development of a country's trade. However, the relationship between exchange rate and export trade has not been determined. For steadily increasing of export in Guangdong, it is most important to clarify the relationship between exchange rate and export trade. The paper first reviews the general theories about exchange rate and trade payment. Then, applying related quarterly export trade data of Guangdong province and yearly export trade data of nine sub-regions in pearl river delta/(PRD/), This paper discuss the impact of exchange rate variability to export trade by using expirical analysis. This paper made research of two problems:Firstly, whether the exchange rate variability influenced the export trade of Guangdong province dramatically:secondly, whether export structure differences influenced the relations between export trade and exchange rate. Regarding to the empirical research of the impact of exchange rate variability to export trade of Guangdong province,this paper applied PVAR model /(one kind of dynamic economic model for stationary panel data/) to do the research, and then applied Granger causality test、Impulse Response function and Variance Decomposition to analysis the relationships between different variables. The empirical research results showed exchange rate variability influenced export trade of Guangdong province, And the exportation in Guangdong province correspond the J curve effect.Regarding to the empirical research of the impact of export structure differences to the relations between export trade and exchange rate, this paper applied random-effect model with interaction of export trade and exchange rate to research the relation, the result showed export structure differences influenced significantly, the area with more manufacture trade will have more influence by exchange rate. Finally, this paper makes relevant policy recommendations under the results of the empirical analysis links the actual situation of PRD from government and enterprise. This feature of the paper contains three points. Firstly, the research angle is different from the existing model used in other papers,this paper had distinguished the exchange rate data from different country and considered the export structure to research the relations between exchange and export. Secondly. this paper establish municipal panel-data to research regional factor how to influence the relations of exchange and export. Thirdly, the panel data model used in this paper is more power than time series model.

关 键 词： 人民币汇率 出口 出口结构 面板向量自回归模型 随机效应模型

分 类 号： [F832.6 F752.62 F224]

领　　域： [经济管理] [经济管理] [经济管理] [经济管理]