导　　师： 张炳才;刘伟明

学科专业： 1201

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 华南理工大学

摘　　要： 经济评估研究是电力建设项目规划方案的重要组成部分。在市场经济高度发展、公司制度不断改革的今天，供电企业除要考虑工程建设的社会效益外，更需要考虑经济效益；违背经济规律经营会导致工程停滞甚至企业破产。除了分析该方案是否在技术上的先进性,可靠性和适用度外,还要分析该方案的经济性。故对项目的经济评估成为项目可行的重中之重。 在目前的建设项目中，普遍存在粗略地计算电网建设所需的各种设备的造价,然后根据对设备的总投资来比较不同方案的经济性，就作为规划方案经济性评价。此方法欠缺科学性及合理性，缺陷体现在: /(1/)经济性并非单与建设期的各种设备投资有关,还与电网建成运行后的运行成本、电量的销售收入等有关系,存在不完整之处; /(2/)目前采用的经济评价方法，没有考虑到资金时间因素的影响,与实际并不相符; /(3/)未考略经济评估研究因素的影响,例如:国家政策的调整、社会经济发展、人口变动及环境变化等因素的影响。 对该项目方案进行经济评估研究，考察项目的经济指标，研究其中不定因素产生的运营差异及经济效果，预测项目可能承担的风险，测算经济效益。 论文对广州K变电站建设项目进行经济评估研究，论述财务评估的理论方法和思路，分析影响投资效益的各种因素，评价各因素对经济指标的影响程度，得到相关的研究数据。 主要从三个方面对项目进行经济评估研究，包括盈亏平衡因素分析、敏感性分析及风险概率分析。其中盈亏平衡因素分析包括主要包括线性和非线性盈亏平衡分析；敏感性分析包括单因素敏感性分析、双因素敏感性分析、多因素敏感性分析。通过对项目的经济评估研究，为项目决策提供参考数据和基本政策建议。 Economic evaluation research is a important part of the planning and construction. Withthe high-speed economic development, economic returns is paid more and more attention.Besides technical, validity, reliability, we pay more attention on economic benefits. In the current construction project, prevalence of rough calculations of power grid con-struction for a variety of equipment cost, then according to the equipment total investment tocompare different schemes are economic, as a planning scheme economic evaluation.Thismethod is lack of science and rationality, defect is reflected in: /(1/) the economy not only and the construction period, a variety of equipment investment,but also with power grid operation after the operation cost, electricity sales income of a rela-tionship, there is not complete; /(2/) the economic evaluation method, not considering capital time factors, and doesn't ac-tually; /(3/) without consideration economic evaluation studies of factors, such as: the adjustmentofnational policy, the social and economic development, population change and environmentchange and other factors. On the project economic evaluation research, inspected the project economic index, onwhich the indefinite factors to produce operation difference and economy effect, forecast pro-ject may take the risk, measure of economic benefits. Study on Guangzhou K substation construction project economic evaluation research,discusses the financial evaluation theory and method, analysis of the impact of investmentefficiency evaluation of various factors, the factors on economic index influence degree, getrelevant research data. Mainly from the three aspects of project economic evaluation studies, including profitand loss balance analysis, sensitivity analysis and probability analysis.The profit and lossbalance factors including including linear and nonlinear profit and loss balance analysis; sen-sitivity analysis includes the single factor sensitivity analysis, dual factor sensitivity analysis,sensitivity analysis.Through the project economic evaluation research, for the project deci-sion-making provide reference data and the basic policy recommendations.

关 键 词： 不确定性分析 盈亏平衡分析 敏感性分析 概率分析

分 类 号： [F282 F426.61 F224]

领　　域： [经济管理] [经济管理] [经济管理]