导　　师： 白先春

学科专业： 020208

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 南京财经大学

摘　　要： 社会经济发展历经农业经济社会、工业经济社会和服务经济社会三个阶段。在农业经济社会，农业增加值在GDP中的比重最大。随着经济的发展，农业增加值在GDP中的比重不断下降，工业增加值在GDP中的比重逐渐上升，服务业增加值在GDP中的比重也有所增加。人类社会进入工业经济时期，在工业化初期，服务业附属于工业；在工业化中期，服务业已经从工业中分离出来，但对工业化的作用不明显；在工业化后期，根据发达国家的发展经历，服务业尤其是生产性服务业增加值达到60/%左右；服务经济时期服务业增加值在GDP中的比重在60/%以上。研究表明江苏省工业化处于中后期，但是近年来服务业增加值在GDP中的比重在40/%左右，工业化和服务业发展关系并没有呈现出相应的现象。本文旨在研究江苏省工业化和服务业发展关系，探讨服务业发展滞后的原因。此研究共分为五个部分。 第一部分主要是工业化和服务业发展的文献综述，从理论方面论述制造业与服务业尤其是与生产性服务业的互动机制。 第二部分论证了工业化和服务业发展的内在关系，两者具有密不可分的相互关系。具体表现为工业化和服务业发展之间相互促进、相互作用，共同发展。 第三部分应用描述统计的方法分析了江苏省工业化、制造业和服务业现状。根据人均收入水平、产业结构等指标判断出江苏省工业化处于中后期。江苏省制造业尤其是装备制造业近年来发展良好；服务业增长速度处在20/%～30/%之间，但是生产性服务业增长却很缓慢。 第四部分对江苏省工业化和服务业发展的关系进行实证研究。收集1992～2009年的数据，选取工业产值、产业结构等十个影响江苏省工业化进程的指标和服务业增加值、服务业劳动生产率等八个影响服务业发展的指标。运用典型相关模型和计量模型对江苏省工业化和服务业发展的关系进行实证分析。结果表明：江苏省工业化和服务业发展高度相关；从典型结构角度得出对工业化影响比较大有人均GDP等四个指标；对服务业发展影响较大的指标有服务业劳动生产率等三个指标；江苏省工业化是服务业发展的原因，但是服务业发展对工业化进程没有因果关系。进一步研究了江苏省制造业和生产性服务业发展的关系，结果表明：江苏省制造业对生产性服务业发展有促进作用，Granger因果检验结果显示生产性服务业对制造业发展没有推动作用。最后对1982～2010年生产性服务业和内部的四个行业数据进行回归，回归结果为：对生产性服务业作用最大的行业是商业，其次是交通运输仓储邮政业和金融业，最后是科学研究技术服务业。 第五部分总结了全文，对工业化进程中服务业发展给出一些有针对性的政策建议。 Generally speaking, the socio-economic development will experience agriculturaleconomy society, industrial economic society and service economic society. In theagricultural economy society, the added value of agricultural in GDP possession thelargest proportion, the next one is industrial. With the economic development, theproportions which express added value of agricultural in GDP keep decreasing. Onthe contrary, the proportion of added value of industrial in GDP was graduallyincreasing. What’s more, the proportion of added value of service in GDP wasincrease too. In the early stage of industrialization, the service is attached to theindustry. In the mid-industrialization, the service industry has been separated fromindustry, but doesn’t show obvious effect for industrialization. During the later stagesof industrialization and the service economy, industry and service developmentinteraction. According to the experience of developed countries, in the later stages ofindustrialization the development of sector, especially the production will be up to60percent. The added value of service is higher than60percent in service economicsociety. However, research found that in Jiangsu province industrial the added valueof service in the proportion of GDP at40percent in recent years, and industrializationand service industry development relations didn’t present a correspondingphenomenon. This paper aims to study of industrialization and service industrydevelopment relationship in Jiangsu province. This study is divided into five parts. The first part mainly described the theory of industrialization and developmentservices. And then discussion of manufacturing and service industries, especially theinteraction mechanism of producer services from the theoretical. The second parts study the relationships between industrialization and thedevelopment of service from theory aspect. The third part describes the status of industrialization in Jiangsu province, themanufacturing status and service status application of statistical method. According tosome indicators to determined the stage of industrialization in Jiangsu province.Jiangsu manufacturing equipment especially manufacturing industry developed wellin recent years. Service industry growth in between20/%and30/%, but productbilityservice industry is growing very slowly. In the fourth part, we do empirical research for the relationship between industrialization and the development of service. We collect ten indexes whichinfluence the process of industrialization and eight indexes which influence of thedevelopment of the service in Jiangsu province from1992to2009. And then use thecanonical correlation analysis method to the development of industrialization andempirical analysis on the relationship them. The results show that, industrial andservices sector in Jiangsu province are highly relevant. Further from the perspectiveof a typical structure obtained the greatest impact on industrial indicators is forth. Theindexes greater impact on service development is third. Next we examine the causalrelationship between industrialization and services sectors use the Granger causalitytest method. The results show that: industrialization is the cause of development of theservice industry, but the development of industrialization no causality. The fourth part studied the relationship between manufacturing and producerservices in Jiangsu province. We analysis the manufacturing value added andproduction value-added services use measurement methods for Jiangsu province from1982to2010. The results showed that: the development of producer services industryon the role of promoting. Granger causality test results show the development ofproducer services on manufacturing didn’t boost. Further study of this chapter withinthe relationship between producer services industry use OLS method in Jiangsuprovince from1982to2010. Regression results show that the role of producerservices industry is the largest commercial, followed by transport, storage, postal andfinancial sectors, and finally the scientific technical services. The fifth part summarizes the full text, and gives some specific policyrecommendations for service sector in the development of the industrializationprocess.

关 键 词： 工业化 服务业发展 典型相关 计量分析

分 类 号： [F427 F719 F224]

领　　域： [经济管理] [经济管理] [经济管理]