导　　师： 吴先锋;付德强

学科专业： 1201

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 重庆邮电大学

摘　　要： 为减轻近年来国内突发灾害事件如1998年长江流域洪涝灾害、2003年的SARS疫情、2008年汶川地震及2012年北京发生的“7.21”超强暴雨袭击等带来的巨大社会损失，国家越来越重视应急基础设施的建立以及应急服务体系的完善。在国家应急体系建设中，应急物资储备库选址布局问题是其中的重要一环。储备库的成本费用和选址是否合理直接关系到社会经济效益和国家防灾减灾系统的运行效率，并且与应急物流保障系统的时效性紧密联系。 我国于1998年开始建立应急物资储备制度，在随后的几年中，国家不断完善应急物资储备库的体系建设，在《国家突发公共事件总体应急预案》和《国家综合防灾减灾规划》中还明确了物资储备库的新、改、扩建办法。虽然我国目前的救灾物资储备网络体系已基本建成，但在大型物资储备库布局方面仍存在不足之处如储备库分布不科学、缺少有效的选址成本约束以及库存容量不合理等。这些不足已经在近些年的实际应急响应过程中凸现出来，例如，在2008年“5.12”汶川地震的应急响应过程中，由于西部地区的中央级物资储备库在当时只有两个，分别布局在成都和西安的代储仓库并且相对全国其他八个中央级储备仓库规模较小，所以无论从存储物资量（主要为临时帐篷数量）还是救援距离（储备库与灾区实际路线距离）上都无法快速满足汶川地区的大规模应急需求，最终导致作为主要救援物资的39万顶临时帐篷在震后第10天才从全国中央及直属物资储备库陆续到达受灾地区，据四川救灾中心数据显示，尽管当时已调空全国各大储备库的临时应急帐篷但还是存在80万顶帐篷缺口，许多灾民仍住在公共建筑甚至塑料布下。由于应急救援延迟和救灾物资缺口导致受灾地区人民生命及财产受到的严重影响在前期救援过程中不断扩大，同时也为后期救援增加了难度。因此，研究应急物资储备库的选址布局问题对于增加西南地区防灾减灾能力甚至对于当前我国的应急管理工作都是非常具有理论和现实意义的。 正是基于上述研究背景，文章首先梳理了国内外选址理论的研究现状，在总结已有的代表性选址理论成果的基础之上，对几大基本选址模型进行分析比较并得出相应的现实应用环境。其次，从应急设施选址决策系统的角度对影响决策系统的外部环境因素即突发性公共事件进行分类并针对突发事件下应急设施体系进行深入剖析，在此基础上给出了广义应急物资储备库的物理涵义。再结合应急物资储备库的现实选址特点，明晰了储备库选址的总目标、输入及输出并在此基础上构建了一个综合多目标的应急物资储备库选址决策模型。在构建选址模型的基础之上，文章围绕应急物资储备库多目标选址模型对一类启发式算法即遗传算法进行了基本原理介绍，进而采用两种改进的遗传算法即NSGA与NSGA-2结合算例并利用matlab2010进行仿真验证，在对比NSGA和NSGA-2解决多目标问题算法效率的基础之上，验证了NSGA-2算法在求解应急物资储备库选址问题中的有效性，最后采用NSGA-2算法结合算例对模型进行仿真求解，得到了相应的帕累托非劣解分布并对仿真结果进行了相关分析，给出了一套选址决策方案，并对决策者的偏好选择提供了相关建议。 在论文最后一章中，总结了全文的主要研究成果和不足之处并提出可以进一步研究的方向。 During these years, In order to alleviate great social loss of unexpected disasters athome such as the flood disaster of Yangtze river in1998, the SARS in2003,theearthquake of WenChuan,China in2008, and the '7.21' super heavy rains attackshappened recently in Beijing and so on.China pay more and more attention onemergency infrastructure construction and the emergency service system. Emergencymaterial storage location problem is an important part of the national emergency system.Reasonable of the storage cost and location related to the efficiency of social economicbenefits and national system of disaster prevention and mitigation, and still close to theefficiency of emergency logistics system. In the year of1998, China began to establish emergency supplies reserve system,in the years that followed, the country constantly improve emergency material storagesystem construction, in the proceedings of the national public emer gencies overallemergency plan and national comprehensive disaster prevention and mitigationplanning 'also made clear material repertory of new and change, expansion method.Although our country's current relief supplies store network system has been basicallycompleted, but in large material storage layout ways still exist deficiencies such as thelack of effective cost constraints and storage efficiency low and so on. Theseshortcomings have emerged in recent years the actual emergency response process, Forexample, in the process of the '5.12' Wenchuan earthquake emergency response, due tothe quantity of western region of central material storage only is two at the time,respectively layouton behalf of the storage warehouse in Chengdu and Xi'an,that therelative eight other central storage warehouse smaller rescue, so no matter the amount ofstorage materials /(mainly the number of temporary tents/) or distance /(the repository andthe disaster area the actual road distance/) can not be quickly Wenchuan area oflarge-scale emergency needs, eventually leading to390,000temporary tent as a majorrelief supplies after the earthquake10days from the national central and immediatematerial storage arriving in the affected areas, according to the Sichuan disaster reliefcenter data show, thentune empty the major repository temporary emergency shelter, butthere is still the800,000tents gap, many victims are still living in public buildings andeven plastic sheeting. Lead to the life and property of the people of the affected areasare seriously affected due to the the emergency rescue dela y and relief supplies gap in the pre-rescue process continues to expand, but also increases the difficulty for the latterpart of the rescue.Therefore, the the study emergency material storage site layout fordisaster prevention and mitigation capabilities increase the southwestern region even forthe emergency management of our country are very theoretical and practicalsignificance. It is based on the realistic background, this article first analyzes the researchstatus at home and abroad of the location theory and analysis of the storage locationproblem belongs to a category. Secondly from domestic emergency supplies reservesystem and emergency facility location decision system two research analyzed thecurrent situation of emergency material storage layout exist some problems and thefacility location decision system decision-making process, has been clear about thestorage location model of input//output and on the basis of a comprehensivemultipurpose storage location decision model. Based on multiple target locationproblem of several kinds of common heuristic algorithm introduced basic principle, incontrast to the basis of several common algorithm using the NSGA and NSGA-2algorithm example design and use matlab2010simulation verification, get thecorresponding pareto non-inferior solution distribution and correlation analysis. At the end of this paper, the whole-length research and shortcoming aresummarized and the writer picks up with his opinions and suggestions for the furtherwork.

关 键 词： 选址 多目标决策 成本费用 启发式算法

分 类 号： [F259.21]

领　　域： [经济管理]