导　　师： 彭维湘

学科专业： 020208

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 暨南大学

摘　　要： 低碳经济在全世界都是崭新课题。我国在哥本哈根大会上承诺减排约束性目标后，国内低碳经济的研究也成为热门。但相比国外开展低碳经济对就业的影响研究已有一二十年，国内关于低碳的研究却基本放在对经济发展的影响上，极少考虑到低碳政策对就业的影响。就业是关系民生的重要指标，衡量低碳政策对就业产生总体影响和结构影响非常重要。 该文首先考虑27种化石燃料燃烧和水泥生产过程估算出精确的二氧化碳排放量，并通过多个指标衡量我国低碳经济的发展现状，从二氧化碳排放因子和能源强度初步估算减排对就业的影响。该文接下来从资本、技术和能源投入三部分介绍低碳经济对就业的影响，并重点选取低碳经济的能源投入与就业作为经济要素间的长期均衡关系这种独特视角进行分析。通过建立随机效应面板模型，对全国的能源与就业数据进行平稳性检验后验证不同行业能源投入与就业间是否存在协整。 研究结果发现整体上能源、就业存在长期互补的均衡关系，行业越细分能源与劳动力要素的互补关系越明显，节能与就业的双重红利并不存在。模型的模拟结果表明：节能会对经济发展和就业均产生负面影响。其对采掘业、制造业和批发零售住宿餐饮业的就业影响尤为巨大，尤其是制造业就业受冲击影响最大且超过10年。交通运输仓储和邮政业、批发零售业和住宿餐饮业会在第二年立刻表现出所受影响，但批发零售业和住宿餐饮业所受影响绝对值更大。从整个行业和市场来看，当能源政策导致能源成本上升，会使得要素在产业间进行重新配置，服务业的就业比重增加，表现出较好的就业结构效应。因此本文提出了调整能源结构、促进产业升级和先行改善教育结构的建议。 Low-carbon economy research is booming recently. As China promised reducing carbon emissionsin the world climate conference in Copenhagen, the research on low-carbon economy become moreimportant. However, the Chinese researches focus on the impact of GDP while foreign scholars haveresearched the Impact of Low-carbon economy on Employment for twenty years. As the employment isso important that measuring the general and structure impact of low-carbon policies on employment. The paper first accounted the carbon emissions based on27fossil fuels burning and cementproduction process, and measuring Chines low-carbon economy. Second, the paper introduced threeparts of Impact of Low-carbon economy on Employment: capital, technology, and energy input which isresearched as the focal point. With the perspective of productive factor input, the paper establishedflexible effect variable interception panel data models to analyze the cointergration between energyinput and employment. The results shows that energy input, employment has long-term complement cointergration. Theenergy-saving and emission-reduction policies will cause the cost of energy increasing which reduce theemployment, especially in mining industry, manufacturing industry,wholesale and retail sale trades。When the cost of energy increases, the employment percent adjusted among different industries, whichshows positive employment structure impact.

关 键 词： 低碳经济 就业 能源投入就业弹性 协整 面板数据

分 类 号： [F124.5 F249.21]

领　　域： [经济管理] [经济管理] [经济管理]