导　　师： 陈建国

学科专业： 020204

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 华南理工大学

摘　　要： 外汇储备对于一个国家来说意义重大，它作为对外贸易的主要支付手段、偿还外债的主要偿债手段、稳定外汇市场的主要工具以及对外投资的主要支付手段在一国的对外关系中起着至关重要的作用。因此，一个国家需要持有足够的外汇储备来满足上述要求，但是，如果外汇储备过多，则会形成外汇储备资源的浪费，会对国内的货币供应造成影响进而加重国内的通货膨胀水平，因此，确定一个适度的外汇储备水平至关重要。 自1997年亚洲金融危机后，我国外汇储备总量开始增加，从1997年的139.89亿美元增长到2012年3月的33049.71亿美元，外汇储备总量位居世界第一。除此之外，外汇储备持有量增速在不断加快，从2001年起更是有加速趋势，年均增长率达到37/%。我国外汇储备规模的迅速扩张己经使得我国外汇储备规模大大超过了适度外汇储备规模。 针对这个问题，本文分别利用比例法、回归分析法、成本收益法对我国适度外汇储备规模进行了实证分析，并在充分的借鉴了国内外关于适度外汇储备规模理论的基础之上，结合中国近年来对外贸易、对外偿债、对外投资以及现行汇率政策的最新国情，对相关模型的参数、结构进行了相关的修改，以确定中国适度外汇储备规模，进而通过对比我国实际外汇储备规模水平，以确定我国外汇储备规模现状，最后在结合我国外汇储备规模的影响因素的基础之上，给出了外汇储备规模管理的相关政策建议。 Foreign exchange reserves for a country that is of great significance. As the major meansof payment for foreign trade, the means for repayment of external debt, the main tools tostable the foreign exchange market and the main means for foreign investment of payment,the foreign exchange reserves plays a vital role in a country’s foreign relations. Therefore, acountry needs to hold enough foreign exchange reserves to meet the above requirements,however, if the foreign exchange reserves is too much, it’s will be a waste of resources inforeign exchange reserves, and will also lead to the domestic money supply and increasedomestic impact of the inflation level, therefore, decide a modest foreign exchange reservelevel is very important. Since the1997Asian financial crisis, the foreign exchange reserve in China began toincrease, growing from$13,989,000,000in1997to the end of2010to$2,847,338,000,000,the highest in the world. In addition, the growth rate of the foreign exchange reserve holdingsis accelerating, there is an accelerating trend from2001onwards, the annual average growthrate has reached to37/%. With the rapid expansion of the scale, the Chinese foreign exchangereserve scale has been greatly exceed the moderate largest foreign exchange reserves. Faced with this situation, This paper makes empirical analysis on Chinese moderatescale of foreign exchange reserve by using proportion method, regression analysis methodand cost-benefit method, and in full for reference on moderate largest foreign exchangereserves at home and abroad on the basis of theory, combined with Chinese foreign trade,foreign debt service, foreign investment and the current exchange rate policy in recent years,to change the related parameters and structure of the model, to determine appropriate scale ofthe Chinese foreign exchange reserves, and then by comparing the reality scale of ourcountry's foreign exchange reserves, to determine the scale of China's foreign exchangereserve status, and the last on the basis of combined with the influence factors of Chineseforeign exchange reserve scale, then to give some relevant policy Suggestions onmanagement of the largest foreign exchange reserves.

关 键 词： 外汇储备 适度规模 阿格沃尔模型

分 类 号： [F832.6]

领　　域： [经济管理]