导　　师： 崔毅

学科专业： 120202

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 华南理工大学

摘　　要： 本文以佛开高速改扩建为研究对象，从佛开高速所处的重要社会地位以及历史的运营情况着手分析分别从现实方面和政策方面阐明对佛开高速进行改扩建的必要性。然后对关键变量——交通量进行预测，确定改扩建规模，计算出工程的总造价。根据所需资金总额安排融资与资金使用，其中35/%来源于资本金，65/%来源于银行借款。 本文重点对佛开高速改扩建项目带来的经济效益进行了评价，分别从财务角度和国民经济角度进行。财务评价结果显示，在两种不同的基准收益率下，本项目评价期为22年（即在高速公路扩建后原收费经营期不变的情况下）的方案项目投资及资本金投资财务内部收益率均小于设定的综合贷款利率；项目投资及资本金投资财务净现值均小于0；项目投资及资本金投资回收期均大于22年。说明本方案有较大的投资风险，在评价期内可能无法收回投资。经推算，扩建后，在收费标准不考虑提高的情况下，经营期最少要延长至2041年（即采用36年评价期），项目在财务上才有一定的抗风险能力。 而国民经济评价结果显示，本项目的经济内部收益率高于社会折现率10/%；经济净现值大于零，这表明该项目从国民经济角度衡量是可行的，国民经济敏感性分析得出本项目有一定的抗风险能力。 简而言之，本项目从国民经济的角度是可行的，而在高速公路改扩建后没有收费延期的政策条件设定下，从财务角度是不可行的。但由于本项目属于国家重要的基础建设项目，尽管财务上不可行，但政府从宏观上考虑，仍然纳入建设范围。 This article use Fokai Highway as the object of study. We clarify the necessity of theHighway from its social status and historical operations. Then forecast the key variable-thevolume of traffic to determine the expansion of scale, calculate the total cost of theproject. Based on the total required funds, we arrange investment and financing of funds.35percent of the total funds comes from capital,65percent comes from bank borrowings. This article evaluate the economic benefits of the project from the financial point of viewand the national economy point of view. The financial evaluation show that the project’sfinancial internal rate of return/(22years/) is less than the consolidated loan interest rate; Theproject’s financial net present value is less than zero; The payback period of the project ismore than22years; Loan repayment period is about nine years /(including constructionperiod/); Incremental loan repayment period is about19years /(including constructionperiod/). This program have a greater investment risk. It may not be able to recover theinvestment in the evaluation period.The project have not a certain ability to resist risks in thefinancial until the operating period is extended to the year of2041/(evaluation period of36years/). National economic evaluation show that the project's economic internal rate of return ishigher than the social discount rate/(10/%/); economic net present value greater than zero,which indicates that the project is feasible from the national economy point of view.Thesensitivity analysis of this project reveals that this project has a certain ability to resist risks. In short, the project is feasible from the perspective of the national economy, but it is notfeasible from a financial point of view. But this project is the country's major infrastructureprojects, the Government still consider the construction of this project.

关 键 词： 佛开高速 改扩建 项目研究

分 类 号： [F542 F282]

领　　域： [经济管理] [经济管理]