导　　师： 杨雷

学科专业： 1201

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 华南理工大学

摘　　要： 动态群体决策考虑了决策成员之间的沟通和交流，比静态群体决策更为科学民主。然而，动态群体决策存在决策时间长，而且最终难以形成一致意见的消极因素，严重影响着决策绩效。已有心理学领域的实证研究表明，群体偏好影响着群体决策的绩效。本文以群体偏好作为切入点，从定量的角度探讨群体偏好与决策绩效之间的关系。 首先回顾了群体决策理论的发展路线、研究方法，针对动态群体决策中效率低下和结果不理想的弊端，从群体偏好的角度，提出本文的研究问题。详细评述了动态群体决策理论研究现状、决策绩效及其主要影响因素。接着阐述了决策偏好的概念、研究现状和群体决策集结理论中偏好的7种主要表达形式。再从观点动力学的角度阐述了动态群体决策中的离散型、连续型和矢量型等3种偏好表现形式和交互规则。 基于离散型群体偏好，结合BA无标度网络的群体关系结构，考察了群体偏好比例、偏好数量和偏好分布与群体决策演化结果和收敛时间之间的关系。仿真实验结果表明：群体演化结果取决于何种偏好占据主导地位，若某一偏好初始时刻比例越高，则群体越倾向于演化至这一偏好；偏好数目越多，群体收敛时间越长，但二者之间不存在正比例关系；占据度数较大节点的偏好更容易在偏好演化中占据优势。 基于连续型群体偏好，提出偏好值域的概念。考察偏好值域对群体决策收敛时间和动态演化结果的影响。建立群体决策动态演化的元胞自动机模型，即决策成员根据信任水平从von Neumann邻域选择交互对象，并根据交互对象的偏好的加权平均值，更新自身偏好。仿真实验结果表明：在其他条件相同的情况下，偏好值域的范围会影响群体决策演化结果，群体偏好值域范围越大，达到稳态时的群体� Dynamic group decision-making is more scientific and democratic than static groupdecision-making, because the former takes the communication among decision-makers intoconsideration. However, it s difficult for all the members to reach a consensus and the processtakes much time during the dynamic group decision-making, going against the decisionperformance seriously. According to some empirical research in psychological field, grouppreference affects the group decision performance. In light of that, this paper will discuss therelation between group preferences and decision performance. Firstly, we review the progress and research method of the theory of groupdecision-making. Because of the low efficiency and poor results in dynamic groupdecision-making, the research problem from the perspective of group preferences is posed.Then we make a comment on the concept, characteristic，progress, its performance andinfluencing factors of dynamic group decision-making. Besides the concept and progress ofpreference and7main preference structures in group decision-making are clearly illustrated.Next we elaborate3important preference forms including discrete, continuous and vectorpreferences from the point of opinion dynamics. On the base of discrete preferences, we investigate the relation between the results anddecision time and the ratio, number and distribution of group preferences, combing with thegroup relationships based on scale-free networks. Simulation experiments show:/(1/) Theevolution results of group preferences depends on the leading preference in the group. Namely,the higher the scale of one preference is, the more likely the group preference will evolve intothis preference./(2/)When the number of group preference is larger, the convergence time islonger. But it is proved that they are not proportional./(3/)The agents preferences, whose degreeare relatively large in the network of relationship, will domain in the group in steady state. On the base of continuous preferences，we put forward the pref

关 键 词： 动态群体决策 偏好 一致性 收敛时间

领　　域： [经济管理]