导　　师： 靳文舟

学科专业： 082303

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 华南理工大学

摘　　要： 随着政府经济政策的不断落实，我国国民经济的持续发展，不仅国内一线城市的经济影响力得以巩固和提高，二线、三线城市的经济水平也一路走高。伴随着经济实力的进步，城镇居民的出行需求不断增加，以公务出行、探亲访友出行、旅游出行等为代表的中长途出行需求增加迅速。 2009年12月26日，京港高铁武广段正式开通运营，2010年2月6日，连接中国中部和西部时速350公里的郑西高速铁路开通运营，我国高速铁路开始进入到全速发展的时期，与此同时，中长途出行中传统的航空客运、普通铁路运输等方式依然稳步发展。这些都标志着中长途城际间不同客运方式的竞争格局已经形成，城际高铁、民航、高速公路这三种主要的中长途出行方式的竞争也将愈演愈烈。上述交通方式的各项服务特性不仅会对旅客出行时交通方式的选择有导向作用，而且对客运部门各项政策的制定有指导作用，以期达到经济与社会效益的双赢。 介于此，论文从中长途快速旅客运输方式系统为研究对象，采用系统科学分析法，分析了中长途运输通道客运交通系统的特性及功能、内部构成、外部影响因素等；其次，本文从不同交通方式的特性出发分析研究了中长途不同出行方式的异同，从人的角度出发，进行了旅客的出行行为分析，定量定性相结合，探讨了影响旅客出行方式选择的因素；再次，采用基于广义时间效用的Logit模型对各交通方式的分担率进行预测；最后，在前文的基础上，探讨研究了在影响出行因素变化的情况下，会对旅客出行选择造成怎样的改变，即这些影响因素对出行需求的敏感度分析。 Nowadays, with the Chinese economic policies carrying out, the national economy isdeveloped faster than ever. The transport requirement of not only the people in the biggestcities, but also in the smaller cities is increasing. Particularly, the transport requirement forbusiness, visiting friends and sightseeing is developed tremendously. In26th September2009, the Wu-Guang part of Jing-Gang High Speed Railway started tooperate. In6th February2010, the Zheng-Xi High Speed Railway related the middle and thewest of China with an average speed of350kilometers per hour began to operate, whichmeans the Chinese High Railway project is in a period of great prosperity. At the same time,the traditional transportation methods like airline and high way are still important. So, thecompetition model between High Speed railway, airline and high way is emerged. Thedifferences between the transportation methods above-mentioned affect not only the choicesthe traveler are going to make, but also the policies the government are going to make. In thatcase, it will be a win-win to the economic benefit and the service benefit. So, this paper uses the moderate//long-distance transport system as study target. Using theidea of systematic, it analyses the features, the functions and the external and internal factorsof the moderate//long-distance transport system. Then, it discusses the differences of thetransport methods, and the people’s travel behavior. At the end of the paper, it discusses thechanges of the people’s transport behavior when the influence factors are changed. In anotherwords, it studies the relation between the people’s transport choice and the influence factorsthrough sensitivity analysis.

关 键 词： 中长途出行 交通特性 出行方式选择 敏感度分析

分 类 号： [U11]

领　　域： [交通运输工程]