导　　师： 朱玉春

学科专业： 120301

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 西北农林科技大学

摘　　要： 粮食安全已成为关系到国民经济发展、社会稳定和国家自立的全局性重大战略问题。中共十七届三中全会提出了到2020年国家粮食安全得到有效保障,农民人均纯收入比2008年翻一番的宏观目标。然而,由于粮食生产具有公益性、弱质性、风险性和利益的外在性,粮食生产是一个社会效益高而经济效益低的产业,粮食增产与农民增收目标未必一致。学术界关于国家粮食安全与农民增收关系的基本研究结论是:种粮收益低下导致农民种粮积极性不高,从而威胁到国家粮食安全。因此,如何提高粮食种植经济效益,鼓励粮农多种粮食、种好粮食是一个迫切而重大的课题。本文通过研究陕西粮食生产经济效益及其影响因素,回答了粮食增收的主要途径是什么,对如何降低粮食种植成本,提高农民种粮的收入,增加农民的种粮积极性等具有重要的指导意义;通过研究陕西省粮食生产现状,发现生产中存在的问题和发掘生产潜力,对陕西省的粮食生产实践将具有十分重要的现实意义。 本文首先对陕西省粮食生产现状进行了分析,发现了粮食生产中存在粮食播种面积刚性减少、农民种粮积极性低、粮食生产受到生产方式制约、粮食生产基础条件差等问题,看到了陕西粮食在粮食结构化、粮食单产水平已经后备耕地资源等方面的增产潜力。然后对陕西主要粮食作物小麦和玉米为例,对陕西粮食生产经济收益及生产成本组成结构和变动情况分析,研究发现:粮食种植净利润波动较大,粮食种植总成本呈现出逐年增长的趋势。从生产成本的绝对量上看,粮食种植所需物质与服务费用和人工费用持续增加;从生产成本结构组成上看,呈现出一种物质与服务费用比重在加大,人工成本比重在减少的趋势。最后,在借鉴国内外研究的基础上,运用Johansen协整分析对影响因素对陕西粮食生产经济效益的影响程度和方向进行了实证分析,实证研究表明,对于粮食的综合影响程度而言,粮食销售价格是影响粮食亩均实际净收益的最主要因素,粮食单产水平是第二位的影响因素,而物质与服务费位于第三位的结论。 在实证研究的基础上,我们得出以下结论:/(1/)提高粮食收购价格是促进粮农增收的关键因素;/(2/)提高粮食单产水平也是促进粮农增收的极具潜力的重要途径;/(3/)物质与服务费的上涨是阻碍粮农增收的主要因素。 Food security has become the one of overall and strategic importance that related to the development of national economy and social stability and national independent. The third plenary session of the 17th session of CPC put forward a macroeconomic objective that by 2020 the national food security should be effectively guaranteed, and farmers per capita net income more than double in 2008. However, because food production is an activity what have public benefits, Weak qualitative sex, risk sex and externalities of benefit, food production is a industry have more social benefit but lower economic benefit, the target of increasing in grain output and the object of the enhancing income of peasants may not agree. A basic conclusion about the relation between the national food security and the increase on farmers’income is that the low benefits in grain production leads the enthusiasm of farmers to sow grain is not high, thereby threatening the national food security. Thus, how to improve the economic benefits of grain production, encourage farmers to plant more grain is an urgent and important project. Through analyzing on the profit of grain production and influence factors in shaanxi Province, the article answers what is the main way to improve the income of grain production. It has important guiding significance to how to reduce the cost of grain production, to improve the income of farmers, to increase the enthusiasm of farmers to sow grain. Through studying on the present situation in shaanxi, we found the existence question and the potential of grain production. It is very important to grain production in shaanxi province. First of all, through analyzing on the present situation, we discovery some questions in grain production in shaanxi, such as the grain acreage is rigidity decreasing, the farmer is planted the issue with grain not high enthusiasm, food production is restricted by the mode of production, and the basic condition for grain production is poor; We also found the potential of grain production in shaanxi province, for example, the structure of grain production, the level of per unit area yield of grain, and the reserve cultivated land resources. and analyzed the advanced grain production mode. Second, taking wheat and corn what are the main grain in shaanxi as an example, we analyze the grain revenues and grain production cost and the change of its structure in shaanxi province, we found that the fluctuation of net profit of grain production is huge, and the total cost of grain production has a trend that increases year by year. From the absolute amount of production cost, Material and service charges and artificial cost in grain production are increasing continuously; From the structures of production cost, the proportion of material and service fee is increasing, but labor costs in proportion is reducing. Last of all, on the basis of domestic and international research, we use Johansen Cointegration Test to study the magnitude and direction how the influencing factors influence the economic benefits of grain production in shaanxi province. The empirical research shows that, for of the comprehensive influence of grain, the sales price is the main factor to the net income of per unit area yield on food, and the level of grain yield is second influencing factors, and material and service charges is located in the third conclusion. On the basis of the empirical research, we concluded that: /(1/) making up the food price is the key factor to improve the income of farmer; /(2/) improving the level of the per unit area yield of grain is also a extremely potential way;/(3/) the increase of material and service charge is the main factors to hinder the increasing income of farmers.

关 键 词： 陕西 粮食 经济效益 影响因素 协整分析

分 类 号： [F326.11 F224]

领　　域： [经济管理] [经济管理]