导　　师： 俞金国

学科专业： 070502

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 辽宁师范大学

摘　　要： 旅游业的发展基于两个基本条件,第一是人们的旅游欲望;第二是阻碍人们旅游行为的各种因素。当人们有旅游意愿时,在阻碍人们发生旅游行为的众多因素中,往往交通因素更为显著。换句话说,两地之间的距离,决定了旅游者的旅游行为,据统计,2009年在大连市接待国内游客旅游花费构成中,旅游交通费用在吃、购、住、用、行、游等总花费中占23.6/%,位于第一位。由此可见交通是发展旅游业的基础和重要前提,便捷的交通能够满足游客的时空选择需求。 自古以来,交通对旅游业有深刻的影响,如古代的“丝绸之路”,这种商旅开创了旅游先河;“条条大道通罗马”说明了罗马时期相对完善的交通路线、海上航运,为游客的出行、观光游览提供可能。近代,汽车、火车、飞机的发明,帮助人们能接触到更多地方,因此,从古代到现代,科技的发展、信息的发达等等,每一次的交通技术的飞速发展和突破有助于人们发生旅游行为。由此可见旅游交通作为一种基础设施,其完善的程度势必会影响该区域的可达性,进而会影响该区域的游客量,且对该区域旅游业的发展有着重要的影响。 本文以2000年到2008年东北三省各地级市的人口总数、人均年收入作为原始数据,采用线性回归分析、几何级数法人口预测模型、指数增长方式人口预测模型和引力模型等方法,预测并分析2014年到2018年东北各地级市到大连市的人口总数和人均年收入值,再以哈大高铁为线索,对比分析其建成前后东北三省各地级市到达大连市的可达性变化。进而研究哈大高铁建成后大连市在东北旅游市场的状况及对大连市旅游经济的影响。 The development of tourism based on two basic conditions, the first is their desire for traveling, The second is various factors about keeping people travel behavior. When people want to travel many places, there are some factors which prevent people to travel . Especially traffic factor often seemed to be more remarkable. In other words, travel behavior of the tourists will think about the distance between the two places, In 2009 reception of domestic tourists travel cost consumption, tourism transportation expenses in eating, purchasing, lives, use, traveling, etc in total cost, located in the first 23.6/% In Dalian. Thus traffic development of tourism, which is the basis and important premise, convenient transportation will satisfy tourist space-time about choosing demand. Since the ancient times, the traffic have a profound effect on the tourism industry , such as the ancient 'silk road', which started traveling precedent, 'All roads lead to Rome,' explains the Roman relatively perfect traffic routes, sea shipping, which may provide tourists traveling and sightseeing tourism . In modern times, the cars, trains, the invention of the airplane, which help people to travel more places. Therefore, from ancient times to modern times, the development of science and technology, information , the developed traffic technology rapid development breakthrough each time, which helps people to happen travel behavior. Thus tourist traffic as a kind of infrastructure, whose perfect will definitely affect the region accessibility ,therefore the tourist traffic has an important role in the area. Based on the 2000 to 2008 northeast areas about locally administratered level of population, the average per capita income as raw data, using linear regression analysis, the geometric progression method of population prediction model, exponential growth mode of population prediction model and the gravity model method, forecasting and analysising 2014 to 2018 northeast about each locally administratered level in Dalian population

关 键 词： 引力模型 可达性 影响 旅游业 哈大高铁 大连

领　　域： [经济管理] [经济管理] [经济管理]