导　　师： 郭海华

学科专业： 020208

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 暨南大学

摘　　要： 服务贸易是当今世界最具活力和潜力的经济增长领域,它被各国视为拉动经济增长的一个重要途径。中国向来把贸易净出口视为拉动经济增长的三驾马车之一,但在货物贸易顺差迅速增长的同时,服务贸易却多年处在逆差的状态,并且逆差额逐年增加。如何扭转这一局面,让服务贸易对经济增长做出贡献,我们要找出影响服务贸易的因素。上海是国内服务贸易发展最好的城市,同时也是一个服务贸易逆差的城市。本文选取上海作为研究重点,希望能找出对上海服务贸易出口影响重大的因素。 首先,本文从线性回归的角度进行研究,建立了最小二乘回归模型来分析上海服务贸易出口的影响因素,但是由于多重共线性和样本点少的影响,模型效果并不理想。为了克服这两个问题,本文建立了偏最小二乘回归模型进行分析。其次,本文从非线性的角度,运用灰色关联分析法对上海服务贸易出口的影响因素进行了深入分析。接着,本文从服务贸易结构的角度,运用了灰色关联分析法进行研究,提出上海服务贸易发展的重点子行业,并从上海服务贸易重点子行业出口的角度,运用典型相关分析,对上海服务贸易多个重点子行业的影响因素进行了研究。最后根据定量分析结果,提出了促进上海服务贸易出口发展的建议。 Trade in Services is the most dynamic and potential areas of economic growth nowadays. It is considered as an important way to stimulate economic growth. China has always regarded the exports as one of the troika to stimulate economic growth. While the surplus in goods trade has been growing rapidly, the deficit in services trade has lasted for many years and it is advancing year after year. In order to reverse this situation and let the services trade contribute to economic growth, we need to find out the factors influencing the services exports. Shanghai is one of the best cities in developing services trade in China, but also a city of deficit in services trade. This article selects Shanghai as the research focus in the hope of finding out the significant factors that affect Shanghai services exports. Firstly, from the point of view of linear regression, this paper establishes a least squares regression model to study the factors of Shanghai services exports, but due to multicollinearity and little samples, model results are unsatisfactory. To overcome these problems, this paper establishes partial least squares regression model for the study. Secondly, from the point of view of nonlinear regression, this article uses the gray correlation analysis method to make a further analysis on the factors for Shanghai services exports. Thirdly, from the point of view of services trade's structure, this paper makes the study on the sub-sectors in Shanghai services exports with the gray correlation analysis method and proposes the key sub-sectors in developing Shanghai services exports. Then this paper sets up canonical correlation analysis to study the factors for these key sub-sectors. Finally, according to results of the quantitative analysis, this paper puts forward some recommendations to promote the development of Shanghai services exports.

关 键 词： 服务贸易 影响因素 偏最小二乘法 灰色关联分析 典型相关分析

分 类 号： [F752.68 F752.62]

领　　域： [经济管理] [经济管理] [经济管理] [经济管理]