导　　师： 唐丽春;孙丹萍

学科专业： 1201

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 华南理工大学

摘　　要： 随着电力体制改革,电力行业对政府的依赖在不断减少,电力投资主体出现多元化格局,电力项目具有建设期长、运行期长、投资回收期长、投资额巨大、对社会影响面大的特点,一旦发生风险,造成的经济损失往往是很大的。因此,研究对电力项目的风险进行较为系统的分析,避免盲目投资,降低投资损失,提高投资效益就显得非常必要。项目可行性研究作为电力项目生命周期的一个非常重要的阶段,是在项目投资决策前对建设项目进行全面技术经济分析和论证,并对项目建成后的经济效益进行科学的预测和评价,是项目投资的主要依据。本文针对我国电力项目投资的现状情况,介绍了火电项目风险管理的基本内容以及分析方法,结合电力市场环境下发电项目风险的特征,对其进行定性分析,以投资项目的不确定性与风险的关系作为定量研究的重点,采用项目管理理论以及系统仿真技术等先进理论与技术,以项目现金流量作为模拟分析的前提,分析ZH电力项目的盈利能力,详细阐述蒙特卡罗仿真模拟过程,并对ZH火电项目进行实例分析,对ZH电力项目的投资风险进行研究,希望在电力行业发展和改革进行关键期的今天,为电力项目投资以及经营提供有参考价值的方法。 As the electric power system reform, the electric power industry to reduce dependence on government in the investment subject pluralism, electric power project, appear to have long, long period running construction and the investment capital is recovered in long, investment is huge, and the influence of social characteristics, once produce risk, the economic loss caused by the very often. Therefore, the research on power project risk systematic analysis, avoid blind investment, reduce the investment losses and improve the benefit of investment is very necessary. Project feasibility study of electric power project life cycle as a very important stage in the project investment decision is to construction projects and comprehensive technical and economic analysis, and after the completion of the project of the economic benefits of the prediction and evaluation of science, is the main basis of project investment. In this paper the current condition of electric power project investment, introduces the basic content of project risk management and analysis, and power generation market environment characteristics of project risk, the qualitative analysis of investment projects, the relationship between uncertainty and risk as the key, using quantitative project management theory and system simulation technology advanced theory and technology, project cash flow as the premise, the simulation analysis of electric power project, elaborated the profitability of monte carlo simulation process, and ZH power project is analyzed, and the investment risk of ZH electric power project research, hope in the electric power industry development and reform on the stage for the power of today, electric power project investment and management provide valuable method.

关 键 词： 火电项目 投资风险研究 成本收益分析 蒙特卡罗法 实例应用

分 类 号： [F426.61 F224]

领　　域： [经济管理] [经济管理]