导　　师： 谢方

学科专业： 020209

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 首都经济贸易大学

摘　　要： 空间经济行为研究一直是主流经济学的盲点。根据空间不可能定理，规模收益不变、完全竞争的古典经济理论框架不能对空间经济行为作出令人满意的解释，规模递增是分析空间经济活动的必要条件。克鲁格曼在90年代早期提出的新经济地理学分析框架正是建筑在规模递增基础上的，这个框架为解释不同空间尺度上的经济集聚现象提供了基础。消费研究是经济学的核心问题之一，但是，由于主流经济学对空间问题的忽视，对消费问题的研究大多没有考虑消费模式和经济行为特别是厂商空间经济行为间的关系。但在经济实际中，消费者的消费模式对厂商在空间上的经济行为具有重要影响。克鲁格曼的模型虽然给我们提供了一个在主流经济学的框架内分析空间问题的基本模型，但它对消费模式的假设过于严格。消费者并不是具有相同偏好的，由于各种外生原因，消费者可能会希望以不同的方式分配其支出，这种异质偏好模式内生地就会影响经济行为在空间上的分布，进而改变中心—外围模型原有的结论。本文的研究目的就是通过放松克鲁格曼中心—外围模型同质工人的假设条件，对其模型进行扩展，研究消费模式和产业空间集聚之间的关系。 克鲁格曼中心—外围模型的核心是一个由非线性方程组构建的非线性经济系统，原始系统模型通过迭代可以很容易地得到解。但是，异质消费者的引入就需要同时考虑每个微观个体消费者，这样就不能简单地通过解方程组来得到需要的结果，swarm仿真工具提供的实验平台可以控制个体消费者在时间路径上的群体行为，从而能让我们观察涌现的宏观结果。本文的研究方法采用实证经济学的分析方法，通过建立数学模型和利用swarm仿真工具，讨论扩展后的中心—外围模型，并对得出的结论进行验证。 本文的创新之处在于，首先，扩展了克鲁格曼的中心—外围模型，在更广泛意义上讨论了原模型得出的若干结论。例如，中心—外围模型对产业不同空间分布的一个解释是历史所导致的多重均衡，而我们的研究说明历史是产业空间分布形式的重要影响因素，但这种影响并不是通过多重均衡的形式表现出来的；消费者消费模式的演化对产业空间分布有重要影响；等等；另外，用swarm仿真研究并验证了原始中心—外围模型以及扩展后的模型；在通过ace方法研究空间经济学方面进行了初步探索。 For a long time, main-stream economics has ignored the study of spatial economic activities. Spatial impossibility theorem shows that classical economics can not make satisfactory explanation on spatial economic activities, for it is based on constant returns and perfect competition assumptions. To explain them, increasing returns must be assumed. It's just based on this that Paul Krugman proposed the new geography economy analysis framework in the early 90's. In this framework, economic agglomeration on different spatial scales can be studied.Consumption has always been an essential consideration in economic analysis. However, most research before did not consider the relationship between consumption pattern and spatial economic activities, especially those related to goods producers. In economy reality, consumption pattern has important influence on producers' spatial distribution. Although Krugman's analysis framework provides a well-established model to consider spatial economic problems, its assumptions are strict. Consumers do not have homogenous preferences. For different exogenous reasons, consumers have heterogeneous preferences and they are expected to allocate their income on goods differently. Heterogeneous preferences will endogenously influence the spatial distribution of economic activities, and thus different conclusions can be drawn from the extended core-periphery model. The research in this paper attempts to relax the core-periphery model's homogenous consumer assumption and investigate the relationship between consumption pattern and spatial industrial agglomeration.The essential part of the original core-periphery model is a non-linear economic system that is constituted by non-linear equations. Iterative computation can easily solve the equations system. However, introduction of heterogeneous consumers requires consideration of individual consumers in micro ways and results can't be obtained as in the study of original core-periphery model. The Swarm simulation tool provides us with a way to control all individual consumers along the time path, and observe the emergent macro economic activities. In this research, empirical methods are adopted and mathematical analysis models and Swarm simulation are utilized to discuss the extended core-periphery model.Analysis in this paper reveals that although history has important influence on spatial industrial distribution, it does not demonstrate itself by multiple equilibriums because of median transportation cost. Moreover, the evolution of consumption pattern has important impact on spatial industrial distribution. This paper also explores the ACE research method in spatial economics research and testifies propositions drawn out from the original and extended core-periphery models with Swarm simulation.

关 键 词： 消费模式 空间经济行为 规模递增 经济集聚 产业空间分布

分 类 号： [F061.5]

领　　域： [经济管理]