导　　师： 徐现祥

学科专业： B0104

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 中山大学

摘　　要： 本文试图通过识别地方官员更替对投资增长这一关键渠道的影响来增进对宏观经济稳定增长的理解。实证发现,地方官员更替使得辖区当年的投资增长率降低约1.5个百分点。1990年之前官员更替并未带来投资波动,而此后则带来显著的投资波动。在东部、中部和西部的对比上,东部地区的地方官员更替最为突出地降低了当年的投资增长,西部地区也显著存在类似的现象,而中部地区则没有这样的现象。最后,相对于书记而言,地方官员更替冲击投资的现象在省长层面更为突出。在这些实证结果的基础上,本文将投资细分为城镇固定资产投资和农村固定资产投资这两个子投资项,进一步通过识别地方官员更替对这两个子投资增长的影响,从而进一步深入地了解地方官员更替是如何对投资增长产生影响,进而增进对地方官员更替与宏观经济稳定增长的认识。实证发现,地方官员更替使得辖区当年的城镇固定资产投资增长率降低约1.8个百分点,但与辖区当年的农村固定资产投资增长率的关系则不显著。所有这些差异背后反映了我国特定的中央地方关系和我国偏重经济绩效指标的晋升机制是影响城镇固定资产投资,进而引起投资波动的重要体制因素,从而影响了我国的宏观经济稳定。于此同时,这种特定的中央地方关系以及地方官员“为增长而竞争”的政治锦标赛的激励机制,还很有可能是扩大我国城乡投资差距和收入差距的一个因素。 This article attempts to enhance the understanding of macroeconomic stability by identifying the impact of local officials’turnover to investment growth. Evidence found that the replacement of local officials makes the year's investment growth rate reduced by about 1.5 percentage points. Before the 1990s, the officials’replacement did not bring about investment volatility, and thereafter result in significant fluctuations in investment. The turnover of local officials in the eastern region mostly reduce that year's investment growth, similar phenomenon also exists in the western region significantly, while the central region there is no such a phenomenon. Finally, relative to the secretary, the impact of local officials change to investment level, the phenomenon is more prominent in the governor part. In the basis of these empirical results, this article sub-divide investment into two sub-investments -urban fixed assets investment and rural fixed assets investment. Then we attempt to identify the impact of local officials’turnover to the growth of the two sub-investments. Just to get a further understanding of the impact of local officials’turnover to investment growth, in order to enhance the understanding of local officials’turnover to the macroeconomic stability. Evidence found that the replacement of local officials makes the year's urban fixed assets investment’s growth rate reduced by about 1.8 percentage points. But we don’t find obvious evidence to prove the impact of the replacement of local officials to rural fixed assets investment. These differences reflect the specific central-local relationship and mechanisms for promotion that focus on economic performance indicators in China is an important institutional factors, which would influence the urban fixed assets investment then evoke investment’s volatility, thus affecting our country's macroeconomic stability. Meanwhile, the specific central-local relationship and mechanisms for promotion, which focus on economic performance indicators in China, is likely to acting as a factor that expands the investment and the income gap between urban and rural areas in china.

关 键 词： 地方官员更替 投资波动 政治激励 城乡收入差距

分 类 号： [K31 K25]

领　　域： [历史地理] [历史地理] [历史地理] [历史地理]