导　　师： 康文星

学科专业： G1012

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 中南林业科技大学

摘　　要： 自1987年世界环境与发展委员会/(WCED/)提出可持续发展概念后,可持续发展理念越来越深入人心。实施可持续发展战略,己成为我国重要的基本国策。改革开放以来,衡东县经济社会的发展取得了巨大的成就,但是经济的发展也伴随着资源的大量消耗和环境的污染。如何定量分析与评价一个区域的可持续发展状态,是当前可持续发展研究的前沿和热点。衡东县是我国南方典型的丘陵县域,因此,对其进行可持续发展状况的评估,具有重要的现实指导意义。 本论文在对传统生态足迹模型进行简要分析的基础上,提出了基于能值分析理论的生态足迹计算模型。该模型通过将生态经济系统中的各种能量流换算成对应的生物生产性土地面积,并比较计算得到的生态足迹和生态承载力,从而衡量研究区域的环境可持续发展状况。利用改进的生态足迹模型/(ecological footprint, EF/),对衡东县1995-2004年来的社会经济的可持续发展状况进行定量评估,分析衡东县10多年来生态足迹的动态变化趋势及其主要的影响因子,并在此基础上预测衡东县2005-2010年生态足迹和生态承载力的变化情况。 10年来,衡东县的人均生态足迹在逐年增加,从1995年的0.8874hm2//人到1999年的0.8893hm2//人再到2004年的1.6705hm2//人,增加了1.9倍。2004年出现了生态赤字0.0773 hm2//人。人均需求量超过供给量,其矛盾逐渐突出,区域社会面临一定的环境生态压力。从人均生态足迹的供需结构变化来看,耕地的供需矛盾非常突出,此外水域和建筑用地的需求增长较快,而化石燃料用地却呈现出下降趋势,其他如林地草地等变化不大。这些变化说明,衡东县是以农业为主的县域,由于人口的增加使其耕地面积需求量增加,城市建筑用地也越来越大,而化石燃料用地下降说明其工业发展缓慢。 利用线性回归模型预测结果表明,衡东县2005-2010年的生态足迹和生态赤字将继续扩大,如果不改变以大量消耗资源和粗放经营为特征的传统发展模式,衡东县可持续发展将面临更加严峻的挑战。因此,从区域长期的发展战略看,衡东县要注意以下几个问题：1、加强耕地保护,严格控制开发区建设用地；2、转换发展思路,提高能源利用效率；3、有效控制人口数量,提高人口素质。 Since Sustainable Development was put forward by Environment and Development of World committee in 1987, the concept was accepted by more and more people. Sustainable development has become one of important basic national policies in our country. Since the reform and opening, Remarkable achievements of economic and social development have been acquired in Hengdong county. As a result, this rapid development went with high resource consumption and environmental pollution. How to analyze and estimate the situation of Sustainable Development of one region in quantitative measurement is still an advancing edge and focus in Sustainable Development research domain. Hengdong is a typical hilly county in the south of China. Therefore, it has important practical and instructional meaning to assess the situation of sustainable development in Hengdong. In this paper we present a new method of ecological footprint calculation, based on the energy analysis. The translation of human demand of natural resources and the supply of nature services into understandable and quantifiable concepts is the main objective of the new method. Firstly, the amounts of human consumption corresponding to six categories of ecological productive areas and the amounts of natural supply are calculated. And then, these amounts are translated into common unit energy through the energy analysis. Thirdly, in this new method we are proposing we will derive the ecological footprint and carrying capacity by dividing the energy amounts by the energy density. Finally, we compare the ecological footprint with the carrying capacity to measure the environmental status of sustainability in the given region. The improved 'Ecological Footprint'/(EF/) model was used to assess the sustainability of social and economic development quantitatively from 1995 to 2004 for Hengdong county. The change tendency of ecological footprint and its main influencing factors in Hengdong county were analyzed for the last 10 years. Based on this analysis, the potential changes of the ecological footprint and biological capacity /(BC/) was predicted for 2005-2010. During the last 10 years, Hengdong County's per capita ecological footprint increased year by year, from 1995 to 0.8874 hm2,to 0.8893 hm2 the 1999,2004 and then to the 1.6705 hm2, an increase of 1.9 times.2004 appeared ecological deficit 0.0773 hm2. Per capita demand over supply, gradually prominent contradictions, regional community is facing some pressure on the environment. Per capita ecological footprint from the structural changes in supply and demand, supply and demand of arable land with great contradictions, and water and construction sites rapid demand growth, and fossil fuel sites enjoying a falling trend, as other woodland lawns, a little change. These changes show that Hengdong county is predominately agricultural county, as the increase in population to increase the demand for arable land, urban construction sites is also growing, and the decline of fossil fuels for its industrial development slow. The linear regression models were used to predict the EF of Hengdong county, and the results show that the EF and DF will continue to increase during 2005-2010 The sustainable development in Hengdong county g will face more austere challenges if the conventional development approach is not changed. Therefore, to the long-term development strategies of Hengdong county, more attention should be paid to the following issues:1/) to strengthen the protection of farn}land, to control the urban land expansion strictly; 2/) to transit developing pattern and to improve energy using efficiency; 3/) to control the growth of population and to improve human ability effectively.

关 键 词： 生态足迹 区域可持续发展 能值分析 生态承载力 生态赤字 衡东县

分 类 号： [S7]

领　　域： [农业科学]