导　　师： 刘小明

学科专业： H2303

授予学位： 硕士

作　　者： ;

机构地区： 北京工业大学

摘　　要： 近年来，尽管社会各界对交通安全越来越重视，越来越关心，投入了大量的人力和物力提高我国道路安全水平，但交通事故的频发次数和造成的巨大经济损失仍然是人们关注我国道路安全水平的热点问题，特别是我国的高速公路。一般米说，设计标准高的道路，交通事故率低，设计标准低的道路，交通事故率高。但自1988年我国第一条高速公路通车以来，交通事故数和死亡人数持续上升。2004年，高速公路交通事故死亡人数大幅攀升，达到6235人，平均每万公里死亡1823人，远远高于二、三级公路每万公里的死亡水平，而国外高速公路死亡事故仪为普通公路的1/3～1/2。因此正确地认识和鉴别影响高速公路交通安全的因素有助于政府和交通工程师采取和制定出合适、经济、有效的对策减少高速公路交通事故的发生。 本文在认为司机驾驶状态良好、驾驶经验丰富的前提下，分别分析了平原高速公路线形几何、交通流、环境和交通事故之间的关系，研究发现平原高速公路本身线形设计指标较高，加之地势平坦，理想的道路线形不是影响交通事故的主要因素，而交通流和环境方面的因素(大车比例、小时交通量、大小车速度差、出入口个数、是否雾区、是否城乡、时间、方向)与交通事故有很明显的关系。通过非线性回归模型的方法，建立因变量为交通事故率(包括财产损失事故率、伤亡事故率、总事故率)、自变量为交通流和环境因素之间的3个交通事故预测模型，为交通工程师和决策者借助实时的交通流数据预防和检测高速公路交通事故的发生、提高高速公路运营管理水平提供了理论依据。 本文研究平原高速公路的样本数据来自于京津塘高速公路，根据经验，平原高速公路具有线形好、地势缓的共性，这以京津塘高速公路研究为契机， In China, recently, although a large amount of manpower and material resources have been invested to improve safety on national highways, the severity and frequency of crashes is still the social big challenge, especially for the freeways. Since the first national freeway was open to the traffic in 1988, the number and fatalities of traffic accidents kept rising. In 2004 the fatalities of traffic accidents on the nation’s freeways was up to 6235 people, 1823 people died every ten thousand kilometers on average, which is far higher than the level of common highways. This is quite different with characteristics of western countries, it was said that number of fatal accidents of foreign freeways is only 1//3～1//2 of that of other highways. Analyzing the effect of factors on traffic accident would significantly enhance the efforts of traffic engineers to determine suitable countermeasures to reduce the occurrence and severity of crashes. The study analyzed the relationships between geometric design elements and traffic accident, traffic flow features and traffic accident, environmental elements and traffic accident, which were based on the presumption that the drivers on freeway were in better conditions of steering and had rich experience of driving. The finding of the freeway-Jing Jintang-in plain terrain is that the ideal geometric design is not a main factor to lead to traffic accident. there are strong and obvious correlation between traffic flow features and traffic accident, environmental elements and traffic accident, such as heavy vehicle rate, hourly traffic volume, speed differential between cars and heavy vehicles, number of access, effect of fog, effect of district/(city or country/), effect of way/(up or down/) and effect of time/(day or night/). By means of nonlinear regression the traffic accident prediction models were constructed, the dependant is traffic accident rate including three types which are only property damage accident rate, casualty accident rate and the entire accident rate

关 键 词： 高速公路 交通安全 交通事故预测 交通事故率 交通流

领　　域： [交通运输工程] [交通运输工程]