作　　者： ; ;

机构地区： 清华大学电机工程与应用电子技术系

出　　处： 《中国电机工程学报》 2004年第2期71-77,共7页

摘　　要： 该文推导出6种常用的资金等值计算区间值公式,以及等差、等比序列现金流的区间计算公式。推导出可靠性经济性评价方法中的总拥有费用法和岁收需量法的区间值公式。首次推导建立了可靠性经济学领域的区间分析公式体系。算例分析表明,对于存在多种不确定因素,且其概率分布难以确知的情况下,区间分析可以定量分析不确定性因素给经济指标带来的波动;区间方法同时提供了一种经济性评估中多因素敏感性分析的快捷、全新的方法,可为决策者提供更加充分的定量决策信息。 A complete set of interval interest formulas are deduced for economic equivalence calculations based on the interval analysis. Different interval interest formulas are derived from the deconvolution formulas and interval arithmetic for different cash flow types such as single, uniform series, linear gradient series, geometric gradient series, and irregular series cash flow. Two interval decision evaluation methods, i.e. Total Owning Cost (TOC) and Revenue Requirement (RR) are proposed, which form the framework of the interval model of reliability economics evaluation. The investigation on a large scale distribution system demonstrates that the interval-analysis-based approach canse-welas an efficient and fast uncertainty analysis tool for reliability economics and provide, in an unprecedented flexible manner, much more useful information than traditional sensitivity analysis. It provides a viable and easy-to-use tool for the power system planning, engineering and operations.

关 键 词： 电力系统 可靠性 经济评估 区间分析方法 概率分布

领　　域： [电气工程]