作　　者： ; ; (李欣建）;

机构地区： 华南理工大学建筑学院

出　　处： 《中国人口·资源与环境》 2016年第S1期405-409,共5页

摘　　要： 为辅助决策部门更加科学地制定土地政策,本文研究了城镇化进程中建设用地的消耗趋势。首先,采用逻辑斯蒂曲线的回归方法预测城镇化率与城镇人口的规模演化趋势;其次,采用库兹涅茨曲线拟合了人均建设用地与城镇化率之间的关系,在此基础上得到中国建设用地消耗水平先增后减的总体趋势,并据此提出,我国应对建设用地指标增量分配的传统思路进行适当调整,预留未来城镇建设用地"精明收缩"的弹性空间。依据趋势推演结果,研究认为应从三方面关注建设用地的消耗问题:一是结合实际需求,采取差别化的土地增量供给策略;其次对存量建设用地进行梳理,提升既有城镇建设用地的效率;最后还需借鉴国内外相关经验,积极应对远期用地需求减少的可能情景,创立建设用地减量的规划途径。 To help government formulate more scientific land policies,this research explores the consumption trend of construction land in the urbanization process of China. Firstly,it uses the Logistic curve regression method to predict the urbanization rate,and then predicts the size of the urban population in the future 20 years. Secondly,it uses the Kuznets Curve method to calculate the consumption of construction land for per capita since the relationship between the urbanization rate and construction land consumption per capital indicates an inversed N curve. According to consumption of construction land,research suggests that the consumption of construction land should be concerned with three aspects: the first is to make overall consideration on the stock of land and develop a new way of reducing construction land; the second is to further enhance the efficiency of the existing urban construction land,and to save more land resources; the third is to establish the method to reduce the construction land.

关 键 词： 城镇化 建设用地 趋势推演 库兹涅茨曲线 逻辑斯蒂曲线

领　　域： [经济管理]