作　　者： ; ; (张景欣）; (蒲小明）; (沈会芳）; (林壁润）;

机构地区： 华南农业大学农学院

出　　处： 《中国人口·资源与环境》 2016年第S1期102-105,共4页

摘　　要： 基于广东省1995-2013年的农业面源污染与农业经济增长的相关数据,利用时间序列验证广东省农业面源污染EKC"倒U型"曲线,并运用VAR模型进一步考察它们之间的动态演进关系。结果表明:广东省农业面源污染与农业经济增长确实存在显著的"倒U型"曲线关系,并进入转折期;而VAR实证结果则验证了EKC结果,并发现面源污染对经济发展具正向影响,而负向效应较滞后。因此,要重视农业面源污染对经济增长的负作用,加强对环境保护的宣传和治理力度,提高农户生态环保意识。 Based on the data of Guangdong's environmental pollution and economic growth in the period of 1995- 2013,this article adopted methods of time series to verify whether the relationship between Guangdong agricultural non-point source pollution and economic development showed inverted U-shape,and used VAR model to analyze the dynamic relationship between agriculture non-point source pollution and economic growth. The results can be listed as follows: the curve which represents the relationship between Guangdong agricultural non-point source pollution and economic development was a typical inverted U-shape curve. The empirical conclusions of impulse response and variance decomposition correspond with EKC. Agricultural non-point source pollution has a positive effect on the development of agricultural economy,but the negative effect is relatively backward. Therefore,we must pay close attention to the negative effects of environmental pollution to the economic growth,strengthen the publicity and management of environmental protection,and improve farmers' awareness of ecological environmental protection.

关 键 词： 农业面源污染 农业经济增长 动态分析

领　　域： [经济管理]