作　　者： ; ;

机构地区： 重庆理工大学经济与贸易学院

出　　处： 《云南财经大学学报》 2014年第3期21-26,共6页

摘　　要： 党的"十八大"明确提出国民经济"双倍增"计划,以应对当前中国宏观经济运行所面临的新变化。文章从新凯恩斯混合菲利普斯曲线出发,运用省际面板数据,建立具有交互效应的面板SVAR模型,对通货膨胀与总产出、劳动者报酬等因素展开动态传导机制分析,并着重讨论了外部因素对通货膨胀区域间传导的交互效应。实证研究结果表明,中国总产出与劳动者收入倍增对拉升通胀作用并不显著,适度降低总产出增速能起到稳定通胀的作用,而稳健、稳定的货币政策是通货膨胀管理的关键,另外中国通货膨胀管理在区域间的敏感度存在明显差异,西部地区承受的通胀压力高于其他地区,通胀管理目标要优先考虑西部地区所承受的通胀压力。 In order to cope with the new changes in China's current macroeconomic performance,an 'income doubling plan'of national economy was put forward in the 18th CPC National Congress. Based on the new Keynes hybrid Phillips curve,the paper builds up a panel SVAR model with interaction effect by using China' s provincial panel data. The dynamic transmission mechanism is analyzed between inflation,aggregate output,workers compensation and other factors. Besides,the interaction effect of regional transmission of inflation caused by external factors is discussed in detail. Empirical study results show that the aggregate output and the labor income doubling in China have insignificant pulling effect on inflation,and decreasing the growth of aggregate output appropriately can stabilize inflation. Stable monetary policy is the key of inflation management. The authors also find out that the sensitivity of inflation management in different regions of China is significant,and the inflation pressure in western regions is higher than that of the rest,so inflation management target should give priority to the western region.

关 键 词： 双倍增 通货膨胀 传导机制 面板 模型

领　　域： [经济管理]