作　　者： ; ;

机构地区： 解放军理工大学气象学院

出　　处： 《解放军理工大学学报（自然科学版）》 2001年第6期81-85,共5页

摘　　要： 由于区域范围内各站之间存在着空间相关性 ,区域范围内某要素的概率分布不能直接由单站资料分析提出。以区域场相关性为出发点 ,通过正态化转换和 Monte Carlo方法 ,建立和实现了区域概率分布模型——锯齿波模型。通过大量计算 ,产生的 1 1张气象要素区域概率分布图 ,可用于不同范围内气象要素概率分布的计算。拟合实验表明 ,模拟结果和实际结果吻合较好 。 Because of the problem of spatial correlation, the areal probability distribution of any weather element can not be analysed directly from its single point data. Based on spatial correlation theory, by means of Monte Carlo simulation and Equivalent Normal Deviate, an area probability model for weather conditions, the Boehm Sawtooth Wave(BSW) model, has been developed. 11 graphical representations showing areal probability distribution for different weather elements are obtained, and by using these diagrams the estimates of probability distribution of weather elements in different areas can be calculated. The simulation results correspond reasonably well to the real calculation results based on observations, which indicate that BSW model is an effective model and that it provides a new way to the issue of area probability weather forecasting.

关 键 词： 概率预报 模拟 模型 区域概率分布

领　　域： [天文地球]