作　　者： ;

机构地区： 中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所

出　　处： 《山地研究》 1992年第1期57-61,共5页

摘　　要： 根据蒋家沟泥石流年输沙量最近8年的实测资料,运用灰色系统理论的灾变预测方法建立了泥石流年输沙量的灾变预测模型,对未来可能出现的年输沙量超过200万立方米的灾变年份进行了预测,并引入等维新息模型,使短期灾变预测得以连续进行。 Based on the observational data of the recent 8 years on annual sediment yield of debris flowalong Jiangjia Ravine and appling the method of the catastrophe forecast of Grey System theory,this study has established the catastrophe model of annual sediment yield by debris flow in Jiangjia Ravine . It has forecasted the following possible catastrophic years in which the annual sediment yield of debris flow will be over 2 million m'. Furthermore,it introduced the equal dimension-new information model,which makes the short-term catastrophe forecast can be done continuously.

关 键 词： 泥石流 输沙量 预测 灾变模型

领　　域： [天文地球] [天文地球] [天文地球]