作　　者： ; ; (王升泉）;

机构地区： 中山大学岭南学院

出　　处： 《经济学报》 2016年第3期61-78,共18页

摘　　要： 城乡收入差距较大是我国经济社会面临的重要问题之一。本文基于2000—2013年全国30个省(自治区、直辖市)面板数据,采用贝叶斯模型平均(BMA)方法实证考察了我国城乡收入差距的稳健决定因素。实证结果表明,我国城乡收入差距表现出明显的动态持续性。从全国层面来看,我国城乡收入差距的稳健决定因素为支出法测度的财政分权、农村与城镇物质资本投资比较、金融发展。其中,支出法测度的财政分权、金融发展显著降低我国城乡收入差距,而农村与城镇物质资本投资比较则不利于我国城乡收入差距的缩小。从分区域层面来看,东、中、西三区域的城乡收入差距决定因素各有不同。在不同模型先验概率和不同参数先验概率设定下,本文得出的结论仍稳健。 The widening of the urban-rural income gap has raised an important socio-economic issue in China.This paper investigates the robust determinants of the urban-rural income gap in China by utilizing the panel data from 2000 to 2013at provincial level and by using the Bayesian model averaging approach.This paper demonstrates that the urban-rural income gap is significantly dynamic persistent.At the country level,the robust determinants of the urban-rural income gap are fiscal decentralization measured by fiscal expense,the comparative capital investments between the urban and rural areas and financial development. Among those variables,fiscal decentralization and financial development significantly lower the urban-rural income gap,but the impact of the comparative capital investments between the urban and rural areas on the income gap is negative.At the regional level,the robust determinants of the urban-rural income gap in the east,middle and west of China are different.The above conclusions are still robust under various specifications of prior model probability and prior coefficient probability.

关 键 词： 城乡收入差距 贝叶斯模型平均 决定因素

领　　域： [经济管理]