作　　者： ; ; (魏下海）;

机构地区： 华南师范大学经济与管理学院

出　　处： 《经济学报》 2016年第1期149-178,共30页

摘　　要： 邓小平曾多次强调政治稳定对于中国经济发展至关重要。迄今尚无正规研究对中国政治稳定的经济发展效应进行经验评估。本文利用历年《人民日报》报道"资产阶级自由化"和"敌对势力"的频率作为政治不稳定威胁的测度,以各省人均GDP和实际增长率作为经济发展的测度,发现政治不稳定的确对经济发展具有显著的负向影响,即使分不同时间段考察、排除异常年度、考虑异常样本点和不同模型设定,结果都是稳健的。我们还进一步检验证实,"资产阶级自由化"和"敌对势力"报道频率,的确可以作为反映事实上的不稳定威胁的良好代理变量,而且不稳定对我国经济发展的影响至少有三条途径:社会秩序恶化(如打砸抢等犯罪)直接破坏社会财富;改变经济资源的配置结构(减少生产性支出而增加维持稳定的非生产性支出);抑制国内投资和外商投资规模。 Deng Xiaoping had emphasized time and again that political stability is vital to the economic development of China.There has been no formal research to evaluate the effect of political stability on the economic development of China.This paper adopted the frequency of 'bourgeois liberalization'and 'hostile forces'in People's Daily by year as a measure of political instability,and Per Capita GDP and GDP growth rate of each province as a measure of economic development.We determined that political instability has significant negative impact on economic development,which are also robust when we consider different time periods,abnormal samples and different model setting.We further proved that the frequency of'bourgeois liberalization'and'hostile forces'could be a good proxy variable for political instability and political instability affects our economic development in at least three ways:destroying the social wealth directly by worsening social order,changing the structure of economic resource allocation by reducing the productive expenditure or increasing the nonproductive expenditure,and inhibiting the domestic investment and FDI.

关 键 词： 政治稳定 经济发展 邓小平假说

领　　域： [政治法律] [政治法律] [经济管理]