作　　者： ; (张智川）;

机构地区： 辽宁大学经济学院

出　　处： 《沈阳师范大学学报（社会科学版）》 2016年第5期82-87,共6页

摘　　要： 预期作为一个独立变量是否会对居民的消费动态产生影响,这关系到消费管理实践中具体的政策路径设计问题。借助嵌入信息冲击的新凯恩斯DSGE模型,结合中国1999-2015年的宏观经济数据,对预期到的消费偏好、技术、货币政策和财政政策冲击与消费波动之间的关系进行了实证检验。结果显示,预期冲击可以对消费波动提供接近60%的解释,但不同冲击类型对消费波动影响差异较大。因此,为更好地提升消费管理效率,需针对不同预期冲击进行针对性的差异化政策选择。 Expecations are regardedd as an independent variable affecting the consumption dynamics of residents,which is related to the specific policy path design problem of consumption management practice. This study aims to build a new Keynes DSGE mode which contains information impact,with macroeconomic data China in 1999 and 2015,and analyze the relationship between the expected consumer preferences,technology,monetary policy and fiscal policy shocks and consumption fluctuation. It has found that the expected impact can provide nearly 60%explanations for the consumption fluctuation,but the effect of different types of large differences in consumption volatility impact. Therefore,for better management to enhance the efficiency of consumption,the need for different expected impact for the selection of differentiation policy.

关 键 词： 信息冲击 动态随机一般均衡模型 消费

领　　域： [经济管理] [经济管理]