作　　者： ; (贾宪）;

机构地区： 西安理工大学

出　　处： 《电网与清洁能源》 2014年第11期114-117,共4页

摘　　要： 根据1961—2010年的灞河流域内的逐月水文气象数据,采用Mann-Kendall法对水文气象要素进行变化趋势分析,采用双累积曲线和复回归模型进行径流量的气候变化响应研究。结果表明:流域内年径流量显著减少,年平均气温和年降水量均无显著的变化趋势,仅仅表现为气温略升高、降水稍减少;气温变化和降水变化对径流量的影响各自存在3个突变点,突变点前后径流量增加或减少的变化明显,由回归分析可知,气温升高、降水减少是径流量减少的主要原因。 Based on the monthly hydrological data from 1961 to 2010 in the Bahe river basin,the trend of hydrological and meteorological elements is analyzed in Mann-Kendall method and the runoff response to climate change is studied using Double mass curves and multiple regression models. The results show that the runoff is significantly reduced while the annual mean temperature and annual precipitation have no significant trends,with only slightly elevated temperature and precipitation decreased slightly;and the regression analysis suggests that the runoff reduction is mainly due to rising temperatures and redu-ced precipitation.

关 键 词： 双累积曲线 回归分析 气候变化