机构地区: 吉林大学交通学院
出 处: 《公路交通科技》 2003年第3期140-143,共4页
摘 要: 智能公共交通系统是将信息、数据通信、电子控制、卫星定位、计算机网络等科学技术应用于整个公共交通系统中。站点、客流集散量预测及公交站点间运行时间预测是城市公共交通智能化调度最重要工作。本文研究的主要目的是为公共交通智能化调度基础数据提供预测方法。首先提出基于逐步回归分析的方法预测公交站点客流集散量,其次提出广义回归神经网络方法预测站点间运行时间,并在长春市实际应用中得到了验证。 The public transport intelligent management system is such a system with application of advanced techniques of information, electronic control, GPS and computer network. The forecast of collecting and distributing passengers and the running time from one stop to next in Public Transport Intelligent Dispatching System (PTIDS) is a vital task. The paper discusses the forecast method of accurate base data for PTIDS. First, based on the stepwise regression analysis is put forward about the passenger volumes at stops. Second, based on the generalized neutral network about the running time from one stop to next. The forecast method has been used in Changchun public transport system.