作　　者： ; ; ; (吴海东）;

机构地区： 广州市政工程维修处广州市510100

出　　处： 《中国机械工程》 2002年第22期1918-1922,共5页

摘　　要： 研究模具企业关键设备 (加工中心、电加工设备等 )更新的决策问题。结合设备使用状况和生产经营状况的历史数据 ,在使用回归分析方法建立设备使用期经营费用模型的基础上 ,运用该模型预测设备在决策年限内的总经营费用 ;综合考虑设备更新时的各种风险因素 ,进而构造出一种多目标风险决策模型。基于一个应用案例 。 This paper investigates the decision-making problem for the renovation of key machines, such as machining centers, electrical discharge machines etc., in the die & mould enterprises. In the procedure of equipment management of a die and mould manufacturer, when considering to renovate key machines, the decision-maker should think over both their actual utilities and future market requirements. Due to the characteristics of the die and mould manufacturing, however, the factors to consider here are much different from those to be considered in the mass or batch production paradigms. Under this background, this paper first builds up the linear regression model of the running expenses of key machines by using the historical records during the periods of their utilities. Next, the whole running expenses of these machines during the predefined time periods of the decision-making can be forecast by means of these linear regression models. After that, all kinds of risk factors are investigated and a multicriteria decision model is established. In the end, the paper presents a case of practical application as an example, to illustrate the effectiveness and the applicability of the methodology proposed.

关 键 词： 设备更新 风险决策 线性回归 效用淮则 模具企业

领　　域： [经济管理]